Towards the end of 2019, the world witnessed the outbreak of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus-2 (COVID-19), a new strain of coronavirus that was unidentified in humans previously. In this paper, a new fractional-order Susceptible–Exposed–Infected–Hospitalized–Recovered (SEIHR) model is formulated for COVID-19, where the population is infected due to human transmission. The fractional-order discrete version of the model is obtained by the process of discretization and the basic reproductive number is calculated with the next-generation matrix approach. All equilibrium points related to the disease transmission model are then computed. Further, sufficient conditions to investigate all possible equilibria of the model are established in terms of the basic reproduction number (local stability) and are supported with time series, phase portraits and bifurcation diagrams. Finally, numerical simulations are provided to demonstrate the theoretical findings.

中文翻译：

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新型冠状病毒病COVID-19传播的建模与稳定性分析

接近 2019 年底，世界见证了严重急性呼吸系统综合症冠状病毒 2（COVID-19）的爆发，这是一种以前在人类中未发现的新型冠状病毒。在本文中，针对 COVID-19 制定了一种新的分数阶易感 - 暴露 - 感染 - 住院 - 康复 (SEIHR) 模型，其中人群因人类传播而受到感染。通过离散化过程获得模型的分数阶离散版本，并使用下一代矩阵方法计算基本再生数。然后计算与疾病传播模型相关的所有平衡点。此外，根据基本再生数（局部稳定性）建立了研究模型所有可能平衡的充分条件，并得到时间序列的支持，相图和分岔图。最后，提供数值模拟来证明理论发现。