ABSTRACT

This study uses a gravity framework to investigate the effects of natural disasters and trade openness on bilateral tourism flows. This includes investigating the influence of income levels across countries in the underlying relationships. Results show that the effects of natural disasters and trade openness on tourism flows differ by income groups. For instance, population share affected by storms negatively affect tourism flows in low-income countries, whereas its effect in high-income countries is statistically insignificant. The results also indicate that the negative effect of volcanoes on tourism flows persists after a year in some income groups. Furthermore, trade openness promotes tourism flows in low-income countries, while its effect in high-income countries is statistically insignificant. Appropriate urban planning should be used as a tool to prevent the construction of buildings in high-risk areas to reduce the share of the population that are exposed to danger in the event of natural disasters.

摘要

本研究使用引力框架调查自然灾害和贸易开放对双边旅游流量的影响。这包括调查各国收入水平对潜在关系的影响。结果表明，自然灾害和贸易开放对旅游流量的影响因收入群体而异。例如，受风暴影响的人口比例对低收入国家的旅游流量产生负面影响，而其对高收入国家的影响在统计上微不足道。结果还表明，火山对旅游流量的负面影响在某些收入群体中持续了一年。此外，贸易开放促进了低收入国家的旅游流量，而其对高收入国家的影响在统计上微不足道。