Abstract

Why does Russia seem simultaneously powerful and weak? This article finds the answer in a geopolitical analysis of the structural incentives for and impediments to Russian alliance policy that vary across regions in ways that elude realist, liberal and constructivist explanations of Russia’s conduct. We demonstrate that those explanations miss fundamental changes in Russia’s geographical position after the collapse of the USSR and the emergence of new threats and opportunities. We model the three strategic environments in which Russia acts: its immediate post-Soviet neighbourhood; more distant regions of the Eurasian continent, such as the Middle East and East Asia; and the sphere of global security issues. Building on theories of alliance behaviour, we show how the balance of threats in those strategic environments influences Russia’s political and military policies in different regions in ways not captured by dominant theories or the narratives that inform policy debates.

摘要

为什么俄罗斯看起来既强大又弱？本文在对俄罗斯同盟政策的结构性激励和障碍的地缘政治分析中找到了答案，这些政策因地区而异，无法对俄罗斯的行为做出现实主义、自由主义和建构主义的解释。我们证明，这些解释错过了苏联解体后俄罗斯地理位置的根本变化以及新的威胁和机遇的出现。我们模拟了俄罗斯采取行动的三种战略环境：其直接的后苏联邻国；欧亚大陆更远的地区，如中东和东亚；以及全球安全问题领域。基于联盟行为理论，