The article revisits two classical approaches to development and trade, and offers an alternative account of the emergence of global value chains (GVCs) involving business services (BS), to trade-in-tasks theory. Based on this account, we propose what we call the Hirschman–Linder hypothesis (HLH), which predicts the need for an adequate ‘representative domestic’ (intermediate) demand for BS for countries to enter and upgrade in BS GVCs. We review the quantitative and qualitative empirical evidence supporting the HLH and find two main results: (i) countries with a substantial manufacturing core are more likely to participate (and eventually to upgrade) in BS GVCs, and (ii) countries endowed or specialized in natural resource industry (NRI), either the primary or extractive sectors are also likely to be part of BS GVCs. If BS GVCs represent globalization’s third unbundling for developing countries, the HLH suggests that on the one hand a core manufacturing sector is essential for entering and upgrading in BS GVCs, and on the other hand that if countries can diversify into BS and upgrade in BS GVCs specialization in natural resources might not necessarily be a curse.

本文回顾了两种经典的发展与贸易方法，并提供了一种替代方法，即以任务换贸易理论来说明涉及商业服务（BS）的全球价值链（GVC）的出现。基于此说明，我们提出了所谓的赫希曼-林德假设（HLH），该假设预测国家需要有足够的“代表性国内”（中间）需求，才能使BS进入和升级BS GVC。我们回顾了支持HLH的定量和定性经验证据，并发现了两个主要结果：（i）具有实质制造核心的国家更有可能参与（并最终升级）BS GVC，以及（ii）被赋予或专门从事BS GVC的国家自然资源行业（NRI），无论是第一产业还是采掘业，都可能成为BS GVC的一部分。