Background

The absence of census data on religious identification in Nigeria since 1963 leaves much uncertainty about the most basic religious composition of the country. It is generally accepted that identification with traditional worship declined over the middle of the twentieth century as identification with Islam and Christianity increased, leaving these the two dominant religious groups in the country. The current relative proportions of Christians and Muslims has often been the subject of conjecture, guesswork and assertion, as have trajectories of growth or decline.

Purpose

Where researchers have used sound data to address this question, they have often drawn on a single survey, or, if on multiple data sources, it is unclear how the different estimates the data provides are reconciled. This paper seeks to address these gaps to construct a better picture of the religious composition of Nigeria, and to consider the trajectory of change.

Methods

This study presents data from 11 nationally representative surveys of adults conducted between 1990 and 2018. Surveys include four waves of the World Values Survey, five waves of the Afrobarometer survey, The Pew Tolerance and Tension survey, and the Nigerian General Household Survey of 2010.

Results

The results show that identification with Christianity is likely to have been the majority among Nigerian adults through this period. Evidence suggests that identification with Christianity was still growing in the first half of the 1990s, to a high point of 69% of the adult population. This growth was associated with the tail of the decline of identification with traditional worship. Thereafter identification with Christianity has declined in proportional terms as identification with Islam has increased. Evidence is consistent with literature that suggests that this change is driven by differences in fertility, rather than by religious identity switching.

Conclusion and Implications

Trends presented suggest that the Muslim-identified population is likely on track to have become an absolute majority of Nigerian adults, possibly within a decade with widespread implications, including for electoral politics.

中文翻译：

---

尼日利亚的基督徒，穆斯林和传统崇拜者：根据十一项全国代表性的社会调查估算相对比例

背景

自1963年以来，尼日利亚一直缺乏有关宗教认同的普查数据，这对该国最基本的宗教构成造成了很大的不确定性。人们普遍认为，随着对伊斯兰和基督教的认同增加，对传统礼拜的认同在20世纪中叶下降，从而使这两个占主导地位的宗教团体在该国得以普及。基督教徒和穆斯林的当前相对比例，以及增长或下降的轨迹，经常是猜想，猜测和主张的主题。

目的

在研究人员使用声音数据来解决这个问题的地方，他们通常是根据一次调查得出的，或者，如果是在多个数据源上，则不清楚如何对数据提供的不同估计值进行核对。本文力图解决这些差距，以便更好地了解尼日利亚的宗教构成，并考虑变化的轨迹。

方法

这项研究提供了1990年至2018年之间进行的11项全国代表性的成年人调查的数据。这些调查包括四次世界价值调查，五次非洲血压计调查，皮尤容忍度和紧张度调查以及2010年尼日利亚一般家庭调查。

结果

结果表明，在此期间，尼日利亚成年人中对基督教的认同感可能占多数。有证据表明，在1990年代上半叶，对基督教的认同仍在增长，最高达到成年人口的69％。这种增长与对传统崇拜的认同下降的尾巴有关。此后，随着对伊斯兰的认同增加，对基督教的认同成比例地下降。证据与文献一致，表明这种变化是由生育率差异而不是由宗教身份转换所驱动。

结论与启示

呈现的趋势表明，穆斯林身份确定的人口很可能已成为尼日利亚成年人的绝对多数，这可能在十年之内产生广泛影响，包括选举政治。