Adaptive management has been proliferating since the 1970s as a policy approach for dealing with uncertainty in environmental governance through learning. Learning takes place through a cyclical approach of experimentation and (possible) adjustment. However, few empirical studies exist that cover full iterations of adaptive management cycles. We report on five adaptive management projects on water quality enhancement, of which four led to innovations in the small-scale management of waterways in northern Germany. We trace processes as well as outcomes, to identify factors affecting learning, environmental improvement, and the successful delivery of a project throughout a management cycle. Our findings point to a key difference between two kinds of uncertainty in the studied processes: ecological uncertainty (whether and how interventions will be effective in improving water quality) and what we term “social uncertainty” (how stakeholders will respond to interventions). We find that those managers performed better who addressed both kinds of uncertainty. Factors for dealing with social uncertainties were usually rather different than the ones linked to knowledge gain for the results in the rivers, and their acknowledgment was decisive for successful project delivery. On a conceptual level, our findings suggest that the model of a dual feedback cycle, including both types of uncertainties, allows for more clear-cut conceptual differentiation and empirical outcome measurement of adaptive management processes.

中文翻译：

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水治理的系统学习：来自五个地方水质创新适应性管理项目的见解

自1970年代以来，适应性管理作为一种通过学习来解决环境治理中的不确定性的政策方法，一直在激增。学习是通过实验和（可能）调整的周期性方法进行的。但是，很少有实证研究涵盖自适应管理周期的完整迭代。我们报告了五个有关改善水质的适应性管理项目，其中四个导致了德国北部水道小规模管理方面的创新。我们跟踪流程和结果，以识别影响学习，改善环境以及在整个管理周期中成功完成项目的因素。我们的发现指出了研究过程中两种不确定性之间的关键区别：生态不确定性（干预措施是否以及如何有效改善水质）以及我们所说的“社会不确定性”（利益相关者将如何应对干预措施）。我们发现那些解决两种不确定性的经理的表现更好。处理社会不确定性的因素通常与与获取河流成果知识相关的因素大不相同，对这些因素的认可对于成功交付项目具有决定性作用。从概念上讲，我们的研究结果表明，包括两种类型的不确定性在内的双反馈周期模型，可以使概念更清晰，适应性管理过程的经验结果更清晰。我们发现那些解决两种不确定性的经理的表现更好。处理社会不确定性的因素通常与与获得河流成果的知识获取有关的因素大不相同，它们的认可对于成功交付项目具有决定性的作用。从概念上讲，我们的研究结果表明，包括两种类型的不确定性在内的双反馈周期模型，可以使概念更清晰，适应性管理过程的经验结果更清晰。我们发现那些处理两种不确定性的经理的表现都更好。处理社会不确定性的因素通常与与获取河流成果知识相关的因素大不相同，对这些因素的认可对于成功交付项目具有决定性作用。从概念上讲，我们的研究结果表明，包括两种类型的不确定性在内的双反馈周期模型，可以使适应性管理流程的概念区分更加明确，并进行经验性的结果衡量。