The southwestern coast of the Caspian Sea often experiences heavy snowfall during winter season due to the lake effect. The accurate estimation of snowfall in this region is still a challenge for weather forecasters. This study attempts to investigate the simulation of lake-effect snow (LES) event occurring along the southwest coastline of the Caspian Sea from 31 January to 4 February 2014 using Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The study evaluates the sensitivity of four microphysics (WSM6, Goddard, Morrison, and Thompson) schemes and two planetary boundary layer (PBL) schemes (the Yonsei University (YSU) and the Mellor-Yamada-Janjic (MYJ)), yielding eight distinct combinations. The results indicated that all the simulations overestimated the precipitation. However, the best configurations for estimation of precipitation and snow in terms of their spatiotemporal variation were the Morrison-MYJ and the Goddard-MYJ, respectively. Analyses of the vertical profiles of hydrometeor species showed that the combination of Goddard and MYJ schemes created more snow and graupel than the other configurations. Although the combination of WSM-MYJ schemes revealed the least bias, it was not appropriate for the prediction of snow. A comparison of the two boundary layer schemes showed that the MYJ scheme simulated better intensity and distribution of precipitation than the YSU scheme compared to observations. Also, the maximum radar reflectivity of the model output was useful for identifying the location of maximum precipitation.

由于湖泊的影响，里海的西南海岸在冬季经常下大雪。对该地区降雪的准确估算仍然是天气预报员面临的挑战。本研究试图使用天气研究与预报（WRF）模型对2014年1月31日至2月4日在里海西南海岸线发生的湖面积雪（LES）事​​件进行模拟。这项研究评估了四种微观物理学（WSM6，Goddard，Morrison和Thompson）方案和两种行星边界层（PBL）方案（延世大学（YSU）和Mellor-Yamada-Janjic（MYJ））的敏感性，得出了八种不同的方案。组合。结果表明，所有模拟都高估了降水量。然而，根据时空变化估算降水和降雪的最佳配置分别是Morrison-MYJ和Goddard-MYJ。对水凝流星物种垂直剖面的分析表明，戈达德和MYJ方案的组合比其他构造产生了更多的积雪和gra。尽管WSM-MYJ方案的组合显示出最小的偏差，但它不适用于雪的预测。两种边界层方案的比较表明，与观测相比，MYJ方案比YSU方案模拟的降水强度和分布更好。同样，模型输出的最大雷达反射率也有助于确定最大降水的位置。对水凝流星物种垂直剖面的分析表明，戈达德和MYJ方案的组合比其他构造产生更多的积雪和gra。尽管WSM-MYJ方案的组合显示出最小的偏差，但它不适用于雪的预测。两种边界层方案的比较表明，与观测相比，MYJ方案比YSU方案模拟的降水强度和分布更好。同样，模型输出的最大雷达反射率也有助于确定最大降水的位置。对水凝流星物种垂直剖面的分析表明，戈达德和MYJ方案的组合比其他构造产生了更多的积雪和gra。尽管WSM-MYJ方案的组合显示出最小的偏差，但它不适用于雪的预测。两种边界层方案的比较表明，与观测相比，MYJ方案比YSU方案模拟的降水强度和分布更好。同样，模型输出的最大雷达反射率也有助于确定最大降水的位置。它不适合预测降雪。两种边界层方案的比较表明，与观测相比，MYJ方案比YSU方案模拟的降水强度和分布更好。同样，模型输出的最大雷达反射率也有助于确定最大降水的位置。它不适合预测降雪。两种边界层方案的比较表明，与观测相比，MYJ方案比YSU方案模拟的降水强度和分布更好。同样，模型输出的最大雷达反射率也有助于确定最大降水的位置。