Protected areas are the backbone of biodiversity conservation but vulnerable to climate change. Thailand has a large and well-planned protected area system, covering most remaining natural vegetation. A statistically derived global environmental stratification (GEnS) was used to predict changes in bioclimatic conditions across the protected area system for 2050 and 2070, based on projections from three CMIP5 earth system models and two representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Five bioclimatic zones were identified composed of 28 strata. Substantial spatial reorganization of bioclimates is projected in the next 50 years, even under RCP2.6, while under RCP8.5 the average upward shift for all zones by 2070 is 328–483 m and the coolest zone disappears with two models. Overall, 7.9–31.0% of Thailand’s land area will change zone by 2070, and 31.7–90.2% will change stratum. The consequences for biodiversity are less clear, particularly in the lowlands where the existing vegetation mosaic is determined largely by factors other than climate. Increasing connectivity of protected areas along temperature and rainfall gradients would allow species to migrate in response to climate change, but this will be difficult in much of Thailand. For isolated protected areas and species that cannot move fast enough, more active, species-specific interventions may be necessary.

中文翻译：

---

气候变化下泰国保护区体系的可持续性

保护区是生物多样性保护的支柱，但容易受到气候变化的影响。泰国拥有一个规划完善的大型保护区系统，覆盖了大多数剩余的自然植被。基于三个CMIP5地球系统模型和两个代表性浓度路径（RCP）的预测，使用统计得出的全球环境分层（GEnS）来预测整个保护区系统在2050和2070年的生物气候条件变化。确定了由28个地层组成的5个生物气候带。甚至在RCP2.6之下，预计未来50年生物气候的空间重组也将很大，而在RCP8.5之下，到2070年所有区域的平均上移幅度为328-483 m，而最冷的区域在两种模式下将消失。总体而言，到2070年，泰国7.9.31.0％的土地面积将改变区域，而31。7–90.2％将改变阶层。对生物多样性的后果还不太清楚，特别是在低地，现有的植被镶嵌主要由气候以外的其他因素决定。保护区沿温度和降雨梯度的连通性不断增强，将使物种能够响应气候变化而迁移，但这在泰国许多地方将是困难的。对于无法快速移动的孤立的保护区和物种，可能需要更积极的针对物种的干预措施。保护区沿温度和降雨梯度的连通性不断增强，将使物种能够响应气候变化而迁移，但这在泰国大部分地区都将是困难的。对于无法快速移动的孤立的保护区和物种，可能需要更积极的针对物种的干预措施。保护区沿温度和降雨梯度的连通性不断增强，将使物种能够响应气候变化而迁移，但这在泰国许多地方将是困难的。对于无法快速移动的孤立的保护区和物种，可能需要更积极的针对物种的干预措施。