We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms’ one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms’ near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.

我们记录并评估了截至 2020 年 8 月企业对 COVID-19 危机的反应。首先，在网上，企业将（迄今为止）的冲击主要视为需求冲击，而不是供应冲击。与供应链相比，更多的公司报告销售活动受到严重或严重的干扰。我们将这些中断措施与其预期的销售价格变化进行比较，发现即使对于报告供应链中断的公司来说，他们也期望平均降低近期销售价格。我们还显示，企业正在削减工资，并预计在 2020 年底前进一步削减工资。这些削减源于受到大流行负面影响不成比例的企业。其次，公司（如专业预测者）通过降低未来一年的通胀预期来应对 COVID-19 大流行。这些反应与家庭通胀预期（由密歇根大学或纽约联储衡量）形成鲜明对比。事实上，在疫情爆发后，企业对未来一年的通胀预期急剧下降（降至系列低点），而家庭通胀预期指标则大幅上升。第三，尽管企业近期通胀预期大幅下降，但长期通胀预期仍相对稳定。