Global responses to COVID-19 will impact on delivery of the 17 Sustainable Development Goals by 2030, creating large uncertainties just at the time efforts need to be accelerated. This paper explores how COVID-19 could impact the success of meeting the targets with priority given to the four ‘foundational’ goals: SDG 1 No Poverty; SDG3 Good Health; SDG 14 Life Below Water and SDG 15 Life on Land as these are critical in maintaining a healthy human and environmental resource base on which progress towards all goals can be built. A scenario analysis examines futures across a spectrum in which i) social and health imperatives (lives) dominate, to ii) where economic imperatives (livelihoods) take precedence. Similarly levels of international co-operation are considered ranging from international recognition of urgent global agendas to fragmentation due to the isolation of individual states around national priorities. These give rise to 4 scenarios: a) Global Well-being Prioritized b) World Trade Recovers c) Poverty Gaps Widen c) Earth Systems in Danger and the likelihood of achieving the foundational SDGs in each is discussed. The paper concludes opportunities exist to refocus efforts on delivery of the SDGs but may be hampered by the competing interests of a new geopolitics.

全球对 COVID-19 的反应将影响到 2030 年 17 项可持续发展目标的实现，在需要加快努力的时候产生巨大的不确定性。本文探讨了 COVID-19 如何影响实现目标的成功，优先考虑四个“基本”目标：可持续发展目标 1 无贫困；SDG3 健康；SDG 14 水下生物和 SDG 15 陆地生物对于维持健康的人类和环境资源基础至关重要，在此基础上可以实现所有目标。情景分析在以下范围内检查未来：i) 社会和健康要务（生活）占主导地位，到 ii) 经济要务（生计）优先。类似的国际合作水平被认为是从国际上对紧迫的全球议程的认可到由于个别国家围绕国家优先事项而孤立而导致的分裂。这产生了 4 种情景：a) 优先考虑全球福祉 b) 世界贸易复苏 c) 贫困差距扩大 c) 地球系统处于危险之中，并讨论了在每个情景中实现基本可持续发展目标的可能性。该论文得出的结论是，存在将努力重新集中在实现可持续发展目标上的机会，但可能会受到新地缘政治竞争利益的阻碍。