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As time went by - why is the long wave so long?
Journal of Evolutionary Economics ( IF 1.3 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-06 , DOI: 10.1007/s00191-021-00724-9
Francisco Louçã

Since the end of the expansionary period after the Second War, the world economy went through a long period of mediocre growth with a major recession in 2009 and another in 2020. This period is examined following As Time Goes By, the last contribution by Chris Freeman, with the cooperation of this co-author. As a long period of readjustment after the beginning of a structural crisis is imposed by the mismatch between the capabilities of the emerging techno-economic paradigm and the socio-institutional framework, my argument is that the duration of this transition is explained by the difficult process of replacing a successful institutional setting, that which supported the post-War expansion, by the new accumulation regime that is being constituted. Instead of most of the literature on long waves, which tries to uncover some mechanics of succession of radical technological innovations, this paper addresses different questions: how does the socio-institutional adaptation proceed, and how relevant is this process to explain the length of the downswing since the turning point of the 1970s. In order to investigate such process of readjustment, the conditions for the new rule of financial accumulation are discussed, including the forms and duration of the process of selection, reproduction, and education of the elite, and changes in institutions, norms, and social networks.



中文翻译:

随着时间的流逝-为什么长浪这么长?

由于二战后扩张期的结束,世界经济通过与大衰退平庸增长的长周期去在2009年,另一个在2020年这一时期检查以下时光流逝,这是克里斯·弗里曼(Chris Freeman)在该合著者的合作下所做的最后贡献。由于结构性危机开始后的长期调整是由于新兴的技术经济范式的能力与社会制度框架之间的不匹配而引起的,我的观点是,这种过渡的持续时间是由困难的过程来解释的用正在形成的新的积累制度代替成功支持战后扩张的体制环境。与大多数关于长波的文献试图揭示激进的技术创新的继承机制不同,本文提出了不同的问题:社会制度适应是如何进行的,以及这个过程对解释自1970年代转折以来下降趋势的持续时间有多大意义。为了调查这种调整过程,讨论了新的金融积累规则的条件,包括精英的选择,再生产和教育过程的形式和持续时间,以及制度,规范和社会网络的变化。

更新日期:2021-03-07
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