The 2008 financial crisis did not precipitate global retaliatory trade intervention, in seeming contrast to the Great Depression in 1930s. This article discusses the influence of model structure in optimal tariff (OT) calculations in explaining this puzzle. We emphasize how earlier literature reports high OTs in numerical calculation (of a hundred percent) but only uses simple trade models. We use numerical general equilibrium (GE) calibration and simulation methodology to calculate OTs both with and without retaliation in a series of observationally equivalent models and explore the influence of model structures on OT levels. We gradually add more realistic features into the basic GE model, and show sharply declined OTs, which suggests that trade retaliation incentives effectively disappear with the deepening of globalization in 2008 compared to 1930. (JEL codes: F11, C63, F13).

中文翻译：

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2008年金融危机和报复性贸易干预措施的缺乏

与1930年代的大萧条形成鲜明对比的是，2008年的金融危机并未引发全球报复性贸易干预。本文讨论了模型结构在优化关税（OT）计算中的影响，以解释这一难题。我们强调早期文献如何在数值计算中（100％）报告较高的OT，但仅使用简单的交易模型。我们使用数值一般均衡（GE）校准和模拟方法来计算在一系列观察等效模型中有无报复的OT，并探讨模型结构对OT水平的影响。我们逐渐在基本的GE模型中添加了更多逼真的功能，并展示了急剧下降的OT，