We investigate tropical cyclone (TC) activity and intensity within a 100 km radius of Bermuda between 1955 and 2019. The results show a more easterly genesis over time and significant increasing trends in TC intensity (maximum wind speed (Vmax)) with a decadal Vmax median value increase of 30 kts from 33 to 63 kts (r = 0.94, p = 0.02), together with significant increasing August, September, October sea surface temperature (SST) of 1.1 C (0.17 C per decade) r = 0.4 (p < 0.01) and increasing average ocean temperature between 0.5 C and 0.7 C (0.08 C–0.1 C per decade) r = 0.3(p < 0.01) in the depth range 0–300 m. The strongest correlation is found between TC intensity and ocean temperature averaged through the top 50 m ocean layer () r = 0.37 (p < 0.01). We show how TC potential intensity (PI) estimates are closer to actual intensity by using as opposed to SST using the Hydrostation S time-series. We modify the widely used SST PI index by using to provide a closer estimate of the observed minimum sea level pressure (MSLP), and associated Vmax than by using SST, creating a PI (_PI) index. The average MSLP difference is reduced by 12 mb and proportional (r = 0.74, p < 0.01) to the SST/ temperature difference. We also suggest the index could be used over a wider area of the subtropical/tropical Atlantic where there is a shallow mixed layer depth.

我们调查了 1955 年至 2019 年间百慕大半径 100 公里范围内的热带气旋 (TC) 活动和强度。结果显示，随着时间的推移，热带气旋 (TC) 的成因更加偏东，并且 TC 强度（最大风速 (Vmax)）随着年代际 Vmax 显着增加中值增加 30 kts 从 33 到 63 kts ( r = 0.94, p = 0.02)，同时 8 月、9 月、10 月海面温度 (SST) 显着增加 1.1 C (每十年 0.17 C) r = 0.4 ( p < 0.01) 并且平均海洋温度在 0.5 C 和 0.7 C 之间增加（每十年 0.08 C-0.1 C）r = 0.3( p< 0.01) 在深度范围 0–300 m。最强的相关性发现在 TC 强度和通过顶部 50 m 海层平均的海洋温度之间 ( ) r = 0.37 ( p < 0.01)。我们展示了 TC 潜在强度 (PI) 估计如何通过使用Hydrostation S 时间序列而不是使用 SST更接近实际强度。与使用 SST 相比，我们修改广泛使用的 SST PI 指数，以提供对观测到的最小海平面压力 (MSLP) 和相关 Vmax 的更接近的估计，从而创建PI ( _PI) 指数。平均 MSLP 差异减少了 12 mb 并且与SST成比例（ r = 0.74，p < 0.01）/温差。我们还建议该指数可用于亚热带/热带大西洋的更广泛区域，那里混合层深度较浅。