Indonesia has been the largest supplier of palm oil since 2007, and now supplies around 56% of the global market. While the existing literature has paid serious attention to the diverse impacts of oil palm plantation on socioeconomic factors and the environment, less is known about the joint role of biophysical and socioeconomic factors in shaping the temporal and spatial dynamics of oil palm expansion. This research investigates how the benefits and costs of converting other land use/ land cover (LULC) types to oil palm plantation affects these expansion patterns. We employ a spatial panel modeling approach to assess the contributions of biophysical and socioeconomic driving factors. Our modeling focuses on Sumatra and Kalimantan, two islands which have accounted for more than 90% of oil palm expansion in Indonesia since 1990, with Sumatra holding the majority of the country’s plantations, and Kalimantan having the highest growth rate since 2000. The results show that the expansion in Kalimantan, which has been strongly stimulated by the export value of palm oil products, has occurred in areas with better biophysical suitability and infrastructure accessibility, following the ‘pecking order’ sequence, whereby more productive areas are already occupied by existing agriculture and plantations, and avoiding areas with high environmental values or socioeconomic costs. As demand for palm oil continues to grow, and land resources become more limited, the expansion in Kalimantan will tend towards the dynamics observed in Sumatra, with plantation expanding into remote and fertile areas with high conversion costs or legal barriers. Bare ground seems to have served as a clearing-up tactic to meet the procedural requirements of oil palm plantation for sustainable development. This research facilitates the improved projection of potential areas liable to future expansion, and the development of strategies to manage the leading drivers of LULC in Indonesia.

自2007年以来，印尼一直是最大的棕榈油供应国，目前供应约56％的全球市场。尽管现有文献已经非常关注油棕种植对社会经济因素和环境的各种影响，但人们对生物物理和社会经济因素在塑造油棕膨胀的时空动态中的共同作用知之甚少。这项研究调查了将其他土地利用/土地覆被（LULC）类型转换为油棕种植的收益和成本如何影响这些扩张模式。我们采用空间面板建模方法来评估生物物理和社会经济驱动因素的贡献。我们的模型着重于苏门答腊岛和加里曼丹岛，这两个岛自1990年以来占印尼油棕扩张量的90％以上，苏门答腊拥有该国大部分种植园，加里曼丹的增长率自2000年以来最高。结果表明，棕榈油产品的出口价值强烈刺激了加里曼丹的扩张，这发生在生物物理性更好的地区适应性和基础设施的可及性，遵循“啄食顺序”的顺序，现有的农业和种植园已经占用了更多的生产区域，并避免了环境价值或社会经济成本高的区域。随着对棕榈油的需求持续增长，土地资源越来越有限，加里曼丹的扩张将趋向于苏门答腊所观察到的动态，种植园将扩展到边远和肥沃的地区，转换成本高昂或存在法律障碍。裸露的地面似乎已成为一种清理策略，可以满足油棕种植园可持续发展的程序要求。这项研究促进了对未来可能扩展的潜在领域的改进预测，并为管理印度尼西亚土地利用，土地利用和土地变化的主要驱动因素制定了战略。