Despite the increasing Siberian river discharge, the sensitivity of streamflow to climate forcing/permafrost thawing is poorly quantified. Based on the Budyko framework and superposition principles, we detected and attributed the changes in streamflow regimes for the three great Siberian rivers (Ob, Yenisei, and Lena) during 1936–2019. Over the past 84 years, streamflow of Ob, Yenisei and Lena has increased by ∼7.7%, 7.4% and 22.0%, respectively. Intensified precipitation induced by a warming climate is a major contributor to increased annual streamflow. However, winter streamflow appears to be particularly sensitive to temperature. Whilst rising temperature can reduce streamflow via evapotranspiration, it can enhance groundwater discharge to rivers due to permafrost thawing. Currently, every 1 C rise in temperature likely leads to 6.1%–10.5% increase in groundwater discharge, depending on the permafrost condition. For permafrost-developed basins, the contribution to increased streamflow from thawing permafrost will continue to increase in the context of global warming.

尽管西伯利亚河流量增加，但对水流对气候强迫/多年冻土融化的敏感性却很难量化。基于Budyko框架和叠加原理，我们发现并归因于1936–2019年间三大西伯利亚河流（奥布河，叶尼塞河和莉娜河）的水流变化。在过去的84年中，Ob，Yenisei和Lena的流量分别增加了约7.7％，7.4％和22.0％。气候变暖引起的降水增加是导致年流量增加的主要原因。但是，冬季的水流似乎对温度特别敏感。温度升高虽然可以通过蒸散作用减少水流，但由于多年冻土融化，它可以提高地下水向河流的排放量。目前，温度每升高1 C，可能会导致6.1％–10。根据多年冻土条件，地下水排放量增加5％。对于多年冻土开发的盆地，在全球变暖的背景下，解冻多年冻土对增加流量的贡献将继续增加。