Increasing growing season temperatures and the seasonal redistribution of precipitation due to climate change have recently been recorded across the globe. Simultaneously, increases of severe droughts and windstorm frequency have also been documented. However, the impacts of climate change on tree growth performance and fitness might largely differ among coexisting species. Consequently, ongoing temperature increases could lead to extensive changes in tree species compositions in many forest biomes including temperate mountain forests. In this study we used an extensive dataset of 2824 cored trees of three species from two sites, and parameterized a purely climate driven process-based model (Vaganov–Shaskin) to simulate the growth dynamics and climatic limitations of coexisting Picea abies, Fagus sylvatica and Abies alba in two of the oldest mountain forest reserves in Central Europe (the Boubn and Žofn Primeval Forests). We assumed that the species composition reflects climatic growth limitations, and considered between-site differences in mean temperature due to elevation as a model of future climate change effects on mountain forests. Our results show a complexity of site- and species-specific responses of Central European forests to climate change. Over the last 70 years, the proportion of F. sylvatica in Central European natural forests has increased at the expense of conifers. During the investigated period, we observed an increase in the growth rates of the studied species mainly at the higher elevation site, while for the lower elevation site there was increasing intensity of moisture limitation. Despite being the most moisture-limited species, P. abies showed the highest simulated growth rates. In contrast, A. alba was the least moisture limited of all considered species. Given its recent proportion in the forest species composition and intermediate drought resistance, we anticipate the future expansion of F. sylvatica in Central European mountain forests.

全球各地最近都记录到由于气候变化导致的生长季节温度升高和降水的季节性重新分布。同时，也记录了严重干旱和暴风雨频率的增加。但是，在共存的物种之间，气候变化对树木生长性能和适应性的影响可能存在很大差异。因此，持续的温度升高可能导致包括温带山区森林在内的许多森林生物群落的树种组成发生广泛变化。在这项研究中，我们使用了来自两个地点的三种物种的2824棵有芯树的广泛数据集，并对纯气候驱动的基于过程的模型（Vaganov–Shaskin）进行了参数化，以模拟并存的云杉，长白云杉的生长动态和气候局限性和中美洲两个最古老的山地森林保护区的白冷杉（Abies alba）（Boubn和Žofn原始森林）。我们假设物种组成反映了气候增长的局限性，并考虑了海拔升高引起的平均温度的站点间差异，作为未来气候变化对山区森林影响的模型。我们的结果表明，中欧森林对气候变化的针对特定地点和特定物种的响应非常复杂。在过去的70年中，西番莲的比例在中欧的天然林中，针叶树的数量增加了。在研究期间，我们观察到所研究物种的生长速率增加，主要在较高海拔的地点，而对于较低海拔的地点，水分限制的强度增加。尽管是水分最受限制的物种，但冷杉仍显示出最高的模拟增长率。相反，在所有考虑的物种中，白曲霉的水分含量最少。鉴于其最近在森林物种组成中所占的比例和中等的抗旱性，我们预计欧洲中部山区森林中的欧洲锦葵将在未来得到扩展。