It is widely recognised that coastal flood events can arise from combinations of extreme waves and sea levels. For flood risk analysis and the design of coastal structures it is therefore necessary to assess the joint probability of the occurrence of these variables. Traditional methods have involved the application of joint probability contours, defined in terms of extremes of sea conditions that can, if applied without correction factors, lead to the underestimation of flood risk and under-design of coastal structures. This paper describes the application of a robust multivariate statistical model to analyse extreme offshore waves, wind and sea levels around the coast of England. The approach described here is risk based in that it seeks to define extremes of response variables directly, rather than the joint extremes of sea conditions. The output of the statistical model comprises a Monte Carlo simulation of extreme events. These distributions of extreme events have been transformed from offshore to ne...

中文翻译：

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英格兰沿海海况的多变量极值模拟

人们普遍认识到，沿海洪水事件可能源于极端波浪和海平面的组合。因此，对于洪水风险分析和沿海结构设计，有必要评估这些变量发生的联合概率。传统方法涉及联合概率等值线的应用，这些等值线是根据海况的极端情况定义的，如果不应用校正因子，则可能导致洪水风险的低估和沿海结构的设计不足。本文介绍了稳健的多元统计模型在分析英格兰海岸附近的极端离岸海浪，风和海平面方面的应用。这里描述的方法基于风险，因为它试图直接定义响应变量的极端，而不是海洋条件的共同极端。统计模型的输出包括极端事件的蒙特卡洛模拟。这些极端事件的分布已从近海转变为新的。