<br>泰国手足口病：流行动态的综合模型,Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine

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泰国手足口病：流行动态的综合模型
Computational and Mathematical Methods in Medicine Pub Date : 2021-03-05 , DOI: 10.1155/2021/6697522
Suraj Verma ₁ , M A Razzaque ₁ , U Sangtongdee ₁ , C Arpnikanondt ₂ , B Tassaneetrithep ₃ , D Arthan ₄ , C Paratthakonkun ₅ , N Soonthornworasiri ₆

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手足口病（HFMD）是一种高度传染性疾病，在包括泰国在内的亚太国家多次暴发。鉴于这种流行特征和潜在的经济影响，手足口病是泰国的一个重大公共卫生问题。一般来说，由于不同的社会经济状况、人口结构和生活方式，传染病的传播动态因地理位置而异。因此，全国范围内疾病流行动态的综合模型可以提供信息，以更好地了解和预测该疾病的潜在爆发，并有效地管理其影响。然而，泰国没有全国性的全面（即在模型中包含再感染）HFDM 动态模型。本文致力于推动全国范围内手足口病流行动态的全面建模并了解再感染病例。我们制定了具有动态生命体征（包括再感染）的 SEIRS 流行病学模型，以探讨这种疾病的患病率。我们还引入了周期性季节性来重现季节性效应。这种疾病在泰国各省的传播模式不均匀，因此我们使用-表示聚类算法，将这些省份分为三组（即，高度影响、中度影响和影响最小级别）。我们还分析了从地区医院收集的健康记录，这些记录表明存在严重的再感染病例。例如，我们发现 11%（大约）的感染者在研究期间返回接受重复治疗。我们还进行了敏感性分析，表明基本再生数（）对传输速率敏感（）以及感染者的康复率（）。通过将模型与每个集群中各省份的手足口病确诊数据进行拟合，基本再生数（）估计为 2.643、1.91 和 3.246，均大于 1。基于此高值，这项研究表明，在相同的文化和环境条件下，这种疾病将在未来几年持续存在。

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Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in Thailand: A Comprehensive Modelling of Epidemic Dynamics

Hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) is a highly contagious disease with several outbreaks in Asian-Pacific countries, including Thailand. With such epidemic characteristics and potential economic impact, HFMD is a significant public health issue in Thailand. Generally, contagious/infectious diseases’ transmission dynamics vary across geolocations due to different socioeconomic situations, demography, and lifestyles. Hence, a nationwide comprehensive model of the disease’s epidemic dynamics can provide information to understand better and predict a potential outbreak of this disease and efficiently and effectively manage its impact. However, there is no nationwide and comprehensive (i.e., the inclusion of reinfections in the model) model of HFDM dynamics for Thailand. This paper has endeavoured to promote nationwide comprehensive modelling of HFMD’s epidemic dynamics and comprehend the reinfection cases. We have formulated the SEIRS epidemiological model with dynamic vitals, including reinfections, to explore this disease’s prevalence. We also introduced periodic seasonality to reproduce the seasonal effect. The pattern of spread of this disease is uneven across the provinces in Thailand, so we used -means clustering algorithm to cluster those provinces into three groups (i.e., highly, moderately, and least affected levels). We also analysed health records collected from district hospitals, which suggest significant reinfection cases. For example, we found that 11% (approximately) of infectious patients return for repeat treatment within the study period. We also performed sensitivity analysis which indicates that the basic reproduction number () is sensitive to the rate of transmission () and the rate at which infected people recover (). By fitting the model with HFMD confirmed data for the provinces in each cluster, the basic reproduction number () was estimated to be 2.643, 1.91, and 3.246 which are greater than 1. Based on this high , this study recommends that this disease will persist in the coming years under identical cultural and environmental conditions.

更新日期：2021-03-05

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