Rift Valley fever (RVF) has been linked with recurrent outbreaks among humans and livestock in several parts of the globe. Predicting RVF's habitat suitability under different climate scenarios offers vital information for developing informed management schemes. The present study evaluated the probable impacts of climate change on the distribution of RVF disease in East Africa (E. A.), using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model and the disease outbreak cases. Considering the potential of the spread of the disease in the East Africa region, we utilized two representative concentration pathways (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5) climate scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s (average for 2041-2060, and 2061-2080), respectively. All models had satisfactory AUC values of more than 0.809, which are considered excellent. Jackknife tests revealed that Bio4 (temperature seasonality), land use, and population density were the main factors influencing RVF distribution in the region. From the risk maps generated, we infer that, without regulations, this disease might establish itself across more extensive areas in the region, including most of Rwanda and Burundi. The ongoing trade between East African countries and changing climates could intensify RVF spread into new geographic extents with suitable habitats for the important zoonosis. The predicted suitable areas for RVF in eastern Kenya, southern Tanzania, and Somalia overlaps to a large extent where cattle keeping and pastoralism are highly practiced, thereby signifying the urgency to manage and control the disease. This work validates RVF outbreak cases' effectiveness to map the disease's distribution, thus contributing to enhanced ecological modeling and improved disease tracking and control efforts in East Africa.

中文翻译：

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东非裂谷热应对气候变化的当前和未来生态位模型

裂谷热（RVF）与全球多个地区的人畜共患暴发有关。预测RVF在不同气候情景下的生境适应性，为制定明智的管理计划提供了重要信息。本研究使用最大熵（MaxEnt）模型和疾病暴发病例，评估了气候变化对东非RVF疾病分布的可能影响。考虑到该病在东非地区传播的潜力，我们利用了2050年代和2070年代的两种典型的集中途径（RCP 4.5和RCP 8.5）气候情景（分别为2041-2060和2061-2080的平均值）。所有模型均具有令人满意的大于0.809的AUC值，这被认为是极好的。折刀测试显示，Bio4（温度季节性），土地利用和人口密度是影响该地区RVF分布的主要因素。根据产生的风险图，我们推断，如果没有法规，该病可能会在该地区更广泛的地区（包括卢旺达和布隆迪的大部分地区）蔓延。东非国家之间正在进行的贸易和气候变化可能会使RVF扩散到新的地理区域，并为重要的人畜共患病提供合适的栖息地。在肯尼亚东部，坦桑尼亚南部和索马里，预计适合RVF的区域在很大程度上重叠了高度实行养牛和放牧的情况，从而表明了管理和控制该病的紧迫性。这项工作验证了RVF爆发病例在绘制疾病分布图方面的有效性，