The aim of this paper is to present our examination of the short and long-term asymmetric effects of commodity prices on output per capita within the framework of commodity-dependent countries. First, we adopted a panel Autoregressive Distributive Lag (panel-ARDL) model to disentangle the short and long-term symmetric effects. Our results show that commodity booms have long-term resource blessing effects. In the same way, short-term impacts tend to be positive due to improvements in terms of trade. Moreover, our empirical results provide evidence that the effects of the recent commodities boom (2004–2014) differ from those of previous such phenomena, indicating a learning effect from past experiences. Second, using an innovative panel nonlinear ARDL model, we also examined the short and long-term asymmetric effects of commodity prices on growth by decomposing the commodity price index into positive and negative changes. Our findings provide evidence for the existence of asymmetric effects of commodity price shocks. In the long run, positive changes have greater impacts than negative ones on GDP per capita. Further, our results show that, in the short run, growth is only affected by negative shocks, as the impacts of positive ones are insignificant. Based on our findings, we present implications for policy makers.

本文的目的是提出我们对依赖商品的国家框架内商品价格对人均产出的短期和长期不对称影响的研究。首先，我们采用面板自回归分布滞后（panel-ARDL）模型来解开短期和长期对称效应。我们的结果表明，商品繁荣对资源产生了长期的影响。同样，由于贸易条件的改善，短期影响往往是积极的。此外，我们的经验结果提供了证据，表明近期商品繁荣（2004-2014年）的影响与以前的这种现象不同，表明从过去的经验中获得了学习效果。其次，使用创新的面板非线性ARDL模型，我们还通过将商品价格指数分解为正面和负面变化，研究了商品价格对增长的短期和长期不对称影响。我们的发现为大宗商品价格冲击存在不对称效应提供了证据。从长远来看，积极的变化对人均GDP的影响要大于消极的影响。此外，我们的结果表明，在短期内，增长只受到负面冲击的影响，因为正面冲击的影响微不足道。根据我们的发现，我们对决策者提出了启示。我们的结果表明，在短期内，增长只受到负面冲击的影响，因为正面冲击的影响微不足道。根据我们的发现，我们对决策者提出了启示。我们的结果表明，在短期内，增长只受到负面冲击的影响，因为正面冲击的影响微不足道。根据我们的发现，我们对决策者提出了启示。