A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.

严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 变种 VOC 202012/01（谱系 B.1.1.7）于 2020 年 9 月在英格兰东南部出现，并正在迅速传播并趋于固定。使用各种统计和动态建模方法，我们估计该变体的繁殖数量比先前存在的变体高 43% 至 90%（95% 可信区间范围，38% 至 130%）。拟合的双菌株动态传播模型显示 VOC 202012/01 将导致 COVID-19 病例大量复活。如果不采取严格的控制措施，包括有限关闭教育机构和大幅加快疫苗推出，2021 年前 6 个月英格兰各地的 COVID-19 住院人数和死亡人数预计将超过 2020 年。VOC 202012/01 已在全球蔓延，并表明丹麦、瑞士和美国的传播率也有类似的增长（59％至74％）。