当前位置: X-MOL 学术Science › 论文详情
Our official English website, www.x-mol.net, welcomes your feedback! (Note: you will need to create a separate account there.)
Estimated transmissibility and impact of SARS-CoV-2 lineage B.1.1.7 in England
Science ( IF 44.7 ) Pub Date : 2021-04-09 , DOI: 10.1126/science.abg3055
Nicholas G Davies 1 , Sam Abbott 1 , Rosanna C Barnard 1 , Christopher I Jarvis 1 , Adam J Kucharski 1 , James D Munday 1 , Carl A B Pearson 1 , Timothy W Russell 1 , Damien C Tully 1 , Alex D Washburne 2 , Tom Wenseleers 3 , Amy Gimma 1 , William Waites 1 , Kerry L M Wong 1 , Kevin van Zandvoort 1 , Justin D Silverman 4 , , , Karla Diaz-Ordaz 5 , Ruth Keogh 5 , Rosalind M Eggo 1 , Sebastian Funk 1 , Mark Jit 1 , Katherine E Atkins 1, 6 , W John Edmunds 1
Affiliation  

A severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) variant, VOC 202012/01 (lineage B.1.1.7), emerged in southeast England in September 2020 and is rapidly spreading toward fixation. Using a variety of statistical and dynamic modeling approaches, we estimate that this variant has a 43 to 90% (range of 95% credible intervals, 38 to 130%) higher reproduction number than preexisting variants. A fitted two-strain dynamic transmission model shows that VOC 202012/01 will lead to large resurgences of COVID-19 cases. Without stringent control measures, including limited closure of educational institutions and a greatly accelerated vaccine rollout, COVID-19 hospitalizations and deaths across England in the first 6 months of 2021 were projected to exceed those in 2020. VOC 202012/01 has spread globally and exhibits a similar transmission increase (59 to 74%) in Denmark, Switzerland, and the United States.



中文翻译:


SARS-CoV-2 谱系 B.1.1.7 在英格兰的估计传播率和影响



严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒 2 (SARS-CoV-2) 变种 VOC 202012/01(谱系 B.1.1.7)于 2020 年 9 月在英格兰东南部出现,并正在迅速传播并趋于固定。使用各种统计和动态建模方法,我们估计该变体的繁殖数量比先前存在的变体高 43% 至 90%(95% 可信区间范围,38% 至 130%)。拟合的双菌株动态传播模型显示 VOC 202012/01 将导致 COVID-19 病例大量复活。如果不采取严格的控制措施,包括有限关闭教育机构和大幅加快疫苗推出,2021 年前 6 个月英格兰各地的 COVID-19 住院人数和死亡人数预计将超过 2020 年。VOC 202012/01 已在全球蔓延,并表明丹麦、瑞士和美国的传播率也有类似的增长(59%至74%)。

更新日期:2021-04-09
down
wechat
bug