Why do the North American Amish maintain high fertility when surrounding populations have nearly all completed the demographic transition? Using the same theoretical predictors and methods as a 1996 Population Studies paper, we explore fertility changes, specifically changes in mean parity, between 1988 and 2015 among one sizeable Amish population in Ohio. Findings suggest that wealth flow shifts (as measured by a decline in farming families) and institutional changes (reflected in Amish denominational gradations) help to explain a decline in mean parity from 5.3 to 4.85, while ideological pronatalism (represented by higher fertility among church leaders) helps to explain why fertility has not been more responsive to structural incentives to limit family size. While this restudy confirms the trend of a slow decline in Amish fertility, it also invites a more methodologically expansive inquiry into Amish fertility patterns.

当周围的人口几乎都完成了人口转变时，为什么北美阿米什人仍然保持高生育率？使用与 1996 年人口研究相同的理论预测指标和方法在论文中，我们探讨了 1988 年至 2015 年间俄亥俄州一个相当大的阿米什人人口中的生育率变化，特别是平均平价的变化。研究结果表明，财富流动的变化（以农业家庭的减少来衡量）和制度变化（反映在阿米什教派等级中）有助于解释平均平价从 5.3 下降到 4.85，而意识形态的先天主义（以教会领袖的生育率较高为代表） ) 有助于解释为什么生育率对限制家庭规模的结构性激励没有更敏感的反应。虽然这项重新研究证实了阿米什人生育率缓慢下降的趋势，但它也邀请了对阿米什人生育率模式进行更广泛的方法论调查。