This study investigates how the effects of COVID-19 on international trade changed over time. To do that, we explore monthly data on worldwide trade from January to August in 2019 and 2020. Specifically, our study data include the exports of 34 countries to 173 countries. We estimated the gravity equation by employing various variables as a proxy for the COVID-19 damage. Our findings can be summarized as follows: First, regardless of our measures to quantify the COVID-19 pandemic, we found significantly negative effects of COVID-19 on the international trade of both exporting and importing countries. Second, those effects, especially the effects of COVID-19 in importing countries, tended to become insignificant since July 2020. This result implies that the harmful impacts of COVID-19 on international trade were accommodated after the first wave of the pandemic to some extent. Third, we found heterogeneous effects across industries. The negative effects on non-essential, durable products persist for a long time, whereas positive effects in industries providing medical products were observed.

本研究调查了 COVID-19 对国际贸易的影响如何随时间变化。为此，我们探索了 2019 年和 2020 年 1 月至 8 月全球贸易的月度数据。具体来说，我们的研究数据包括 34 个国家对 173 个国家的出口。我们通过使用各种变量作为 COVID-19 损害的代理来估计重力方程。我们的研究结果可概括如下：首先，无论我们采取何种措施来量化 COVID-19 大流行，我们都发现 COVID-19 对出口国和进口国的国际贸易产生了显着的负面影响。其次，这些影响，特别是COVID-19对进口国的影响，自2020年7月以来趋于变得微不足道。这一结果意味着，在第一波大流行之后，COVID-19对国际贸易的有害影响在一定程度上得到了缓解。 。第三，我们发现不同行业的异质效应。对非必需品、耐用产品的负面影响持续很长一段时间，而对提供医疗产品的行业则产生了积极影响。