This paper attempts to evaluate the capacity of Spanish domestic tourism to relieve the national travel industry crisis in the situation of a complete or significant loss of international demand, such as the one being produced by COVID-19. The results show that though Spanish domestic tourism is expected to fall by 42.64% compared to 2019 due to the loss of income and the fear of travelling, it can still generate 33% of the pre-crisis overnight stays, assuming that 50% of outbound tourism can be reoriented to the domestic market. On the regional level, the potential of domestic tourism varies significantly and may generate from 10% of the pre-crisis overnight stays in the Balearic Islands and Canary Islands to 70% in Castille-La Mancha. This figure depends on the traditional orientation of a region's portfolio on the domestic market, the volatility of its domestic demand and the capacity to attract new segments of domestic tourists. An important novel feature of this research is the use of the value-at-risk methodology to estimate the maximum expected loss of domestic travel as a component of the tourism demand portfolio.

本文试图评估在国际需求完全或严重丧失的情况下西班牙国内旅游业缓解国家旅游业危机的能力，例如由COVID-19生产的旅游业。结果表明，尽管由于收入损失和对旅行的恐惧，西班牙国内旅游预计将比2019年下降42.64％，但假设50％的出境游仍可产生危机前过夜的33％旅游业可以重新定位到国内市场。在区域一级，国内旅游的潜力差异很大，可能从危机前过夜在巴利阿里群岛和加那利群岛的停留时间的10％到卡斯蒂利亚-拉曼恰的70％。这个数字取决于区域投资组合在国内市场上的传统定位，国内需求的动荡以及吸引新的国内游客群体的能力。这项研究的一个重要的新颖特征是使用风险价值方法来估计作为旅游需求组合的一部分的国内旅行的最大预期损失。