There is an increasing interest in the link between ambient temperature and sexual crime in the context of climate change. However, existing studies are limited in evaluating the acute effect of temperature and rarely estimate the attributable burden. Here, we show that in seven large US cities, every 5 °C rise in daily mean temperature was associated with a 4.5 % [95 % confidence interval (CI): 2.8–6.3 %] increase in sex offenses in the following 0–8 days. The associations were stronger in hot and cold season compared to moderate season, and could be enhanced by higher relative humidity and precipitation. The associations were only significant for sodomy, fondling and rape, and for sex offenses happened in certain locations (open space, education, street but not residence). We estimated that 2.6 % (95 %CI: 1.7–3.6 %) sex offenses were attributable to temperatures above city-specific median temperatures, corresponding to a mean annual sex offense rate of 2.9/100,000 (95 %CI: 1.9–4.0/100,000). Our findings highlight the potential rising sexual crime along with climate change and provide useful information for targeted preventions.

在气候变化的背景下，人们对环境温度与性犯罪之间的联系越来越感兴趣。然而，现有的研究在评估温度的急性影响方面是有限的，并且很少估计可归因的负担。在这里，我们表明，在美国的七个大城市中，每日平均温度每升高5°C，在接下来的0-8年中，性犯罪增加4.5％[95％置信区间（CI）：2.8-6.3％]天。与适度季节相比，在炎热和寒冷季节，这种关联更强，并且可以通过相对湿度和降水增加来增强。该协会仅对鸡奸，爱抚和强奸以及在某些地点发生的性犯罪有意义（空地，教育，街道，但不包括住宅）。我们估计为2.6％（95％CI：1.7–3。6％的性犯罪归因于高于城市特定中值温度的温度，相当于每年平均性犯罪率为2.9 / 100,000（95％CI：1.9-4.0 / 100,000）。我们的研究结果突出显示了潜在的性犯罪与气候变化一起上升的趋势，并为有针对性的预防提供了有用的信息。