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Predicting Near-Field Strong Ground Motion of the Huaxian Ms8.5 Earthquake Based on Uncertainty Factors of Asperities
Pure and Applied Geophysics ( IF 1.9 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-04 , DOI: 10.1007/s00024-021-02682-6
Zongchao Li , Xueliang Chen , Kun Chen , Tiefei Li , Qing Wu , Quanbo Luo

The Weihe Plain is at high risk of disastrous earthquakes, such as the Huaxian Ms8.5 earthquake, which caused enormous casualties and economic losses. Therefore, reproducing the strong ground motion characteristics of the Huaxian earthquake is important for seismic design and disaster mitigation. The empirical Green’s function method is used to predict the ground motion characteristics of the Huaxian Ms8.5 earthquake by considering the uncertainty factors of asperities, considering the limited observations in the Weihe Plain and the inaccessibility of the Earth’s interior. The uncertainty asperity factors can be studied by the logic tree method, and source models considering these factors are constructed here. The uncertainty factors include the seismic moment M0, number of subfaults N, stress drop of an asperity Δσ, and asperity area Sa. The asperity area is assigned values of 19%, 22%, and 25% of the fault rupture area; the M0 values of the corresponding asperities account for 40%, 44%, and 48% of the entire M0; and there are two to four asperities. The permutations are combined into multiple-asperity source models. The two-asperity source models reflect the Huaxian earthquake characteristics better than the three- or four-asperity models. The asperity area accounts for approximately 22–25% of the fault rupture area, while the M0 of the corresponding asperities accounts for 44% and 48% of the entire M0. The long-axis direction of the ground motion distribution is the same as that of the mountains southeast of the Weihe Plain. The azimuth angle of the elliptical long axis is approximately 40–60° northeast. The greater the magnitude is, the more complex the number, location, and area of the asperities. This research extends the application of the empirical Green’s function method and can numerically simulate seismic intensity characteristics in areas with destructive earthquakes but few seismic records.



中文翻译:

基于不确定性因素的华县Ms8.5地震近场强地面运动预测

渭河平原处在诸如华县Ms8.5地震等灾难性地震的高风险下,造成了巨大的人员伤亡和经济损失。因此,再现花县地震的强烈地震动特征对于地震设计和减灾具有重要意义。格林经验函数法通过考虑凹凸不平的不确定性因素,渭河平原有限的观测资料和地球内部的不可及性,使用经验格林函数方法预测了华县Ms8.5地震的地震动特征。可以通过逻辑树方法研究不确定性粗糙因素,并在此基础上构建考虑这些因素的源模型。不确定因素包括地震矩M 0,子故障数Ñ,形成凹凸Δ的应力降σ,和凹凸区域š一个。粗糙区域的值分别是断层破裂区域的19%,22%和25%。相应凹凸的M 0值分别占整个M 0的40%,44%和48%;并且有2-4个粗糙。排列组合成多粗糙源模型。与三差或四差模型相比,二差源模型更能反映化县地震特征。凹凸面积占断层破裂面积的大约22-25%,而中号0对应的凹凸的占44%,整体的48%的中号0。地震动分布的长轴方向与渭河平原东南部山脉的长轴方向相同。椭圆长轴的方位角大约是东北40–60°。大小越大,粗糙的数量,位置和面积越复杂。这项研究扩展了经验格林函数方法的应用范围,并且可以数值模拟具有破坏性地震但地震记录很少的地区的地震烈度特征。

更新日期:2021-03-04
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