It is shown that under reasonable assumptions a Drake-style equation can be obtained for the probability that our universe is the result of a deliberate simulation. Evaluating loose bounds for certain terms in the equation shows that the probability is unlikely to be as high as previously reported in the literature, especially in a scenario where the simulations are recursive. Furthermore, we investigate the possibility of eavesdropping from the outside of such a simulation and introduce a general attack that can circumvent attempts at using quantum cryptography inside the simulation, even if the quantum properties of the simulation are genuine.

中文翻译：

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生活在计算机模拟中的概率和后果

结果表明，在合理的假设下，对于我们的宇宙是故意模拟结果的概率，可以获得德雷克式方程。评估方程中某些项的松散界限表明概率不太可能像文献中先前报道的那样高，尤其是在模拟是递归的情况下。此外，我们调查了从这种模拟的外部窃听的可能性，并引入了一种通用攻击，可以规避在模拟中使用量子密码的尝试，即使模拟的量子特性是真实的。