Climate change is projected to have a major influence on forest tree populations and composition. Translocation of species outside their historic range has been suggested to maintain healthy forests and tree species. The introduction of exotic species into botanical gardens and arboretums worldwide demonstrates the ability of many trees to grow outside their natural habitat and may play an important part in avoiding climate driven extinction if grown in a matching climate. However, it remains to be determined which climatic factors are the most important predictors of climatic match. In this study we use information from the arboretum in Hørsholm, Denmark, to analyse differences in performance of translocated Oak (Quercus) and show how data from tree collections can be used to predict success of assisted migration. Our data included archive lists of georeferenced Northern hemisphere introductions of Quercus, and assessments of their survival and growth rates in nursery and the Hørsholm arboretum. Using logistic and linear regression we modelled the importance of different bioclimatic predictor variables for survival and growth rate. Several correlations were identified across the Quercus genus. Survival of Quercus species depended primarily on the temperatures at the origin, whereas growth on the other hand was more dependent on a match in precipitation. The negative correlations indicated that introductions were less successful from sites with higher temperatures and wetter conditions. The study demonstrates an approach to use historical data collected from arboreta and botanical gardens in climate change research. This new approach can provide useful information in relation to assisted migration for an array of poorly investigated species where this may be the only source of information.

中文翻译：

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利用植物园数据确定的成功引进栎属物种的气候标准

预计气候变化将对森林树木的数量和组成产生重大影响。有人建议将物种迁移到其历史范围之外以维持健康的森林和树种。将外来物种引入世界各地的植物园和植物园展示了许多树木在其自然栖息地之外生长的能力，并且如果在匹配的气候中生长，可能在避免气候驱动的灭绝方面发挥重要作用。然而，尚待确定哪些气候因素是气候匹配的最重要预测因素。在这项研究中，我们使用来自丹麦霍斯霍尔姆植物园的信息来分析易位橡树 (Quercus) 的性能差异，并展示如何使用来自树木收集的数据来预测辅助迁移的成功。我们的数据包括地理参考的北半球栎树引入档案列表，以及对它们在苗圃和 Hørsholm 植物园的存活率和生长率的评估。使用逻辑回归和线性回归，我们模拟了不同生物气候预测变量对生存和增长率的重要性。在栎属中发现了几个相关性。栎属物种的生存主要取决于原产地的温度，而另一方面，其生长更多地取决于降水的匹配。负相关表明，从温度较高和较潮湿条件的地点引入的成功率较低。该研究展示了一种在气候变化研究中使用从树木园和植物园收集的历史数据的方法。