What is the impact of a crisis on the belief systems of leaders? We know from a substantial body of research that the beliefs of leaders impact their decision making processes. These beliefs are generally assumed to be stable, which makes them a reliable tool for explaining decision making behavior. There is, however, some limited evidence that suggests that when crises are experienced by leaders as a traumatic event, their beliefs can be affected. This article studies the potential impact of crisis-induced trauma on leaders' belief systems by measuring the operational codes of Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte before and after the shooting down of flight MH17 in 2014 in Ukraine. We use quantitative content analysis of written texts such as the speeches by Rutte. Our aim is to contribute to the crisis management literature that focuses on individual leadership and crises by finding out whether Rutte's operational code changed significantly after the downing of flight MH17. We conclude that there were two significant changes in Rutte's belief system, but these cannot be attributed to the effects of the traumatic event only. Therefore we offer an alternative explanation that combines the traumatic event hypothesis with the crisis-learning hypothesis.

中文翻译：

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创伤和信仰系统；荷兰首相吕特和MH17航班坠毁的操作代码分析

危机对领导者的信仰体系有何影响？我们从大量研究中了解到，领导者的信念会影响他们的决策过程。这些信念通常被假定为稳定的，这使它们成为解释决策行为的可靠工具。然而，有一些有限的证据表明，当领导者将危机视为创伤性事件时，他们的信念会受到影响。本文通过衡量荷兰首相马克·鲁特在 2014 年乌克兰 MH17 航班被击落前后的操作规范，研究了危机引发的创伤对领导人信仰体系的潜在影响。我们使用书面文本的定量内容分析，例如 Rutte 的演讲。我们的目标是通过找出在 MH17 航班坠毁后 Rutte 的操作代码是否发生重大变化，为关注个人领导力和危机的危机管理文献做出贡献。我们得出结论，吕特的信仰体系有两个重大变化，但这些变化不能仅归因于创伤事件的影响。因此，我们提供了另一种解释，将创伤事件假说与危机学习假说相结合。