Plants and pollinators might respond differently to changes in climate, and thus plant-pollinator relationships are vulnerable to spatial, temporal, morphological and recognition mismatches. Although the effects of climate change on pollinators and pollination services are expected to be greater in the tropics than in other latitudes, these effects remain poorly documented. Herein, we assessed the spatial distribution of nine species (of five genera) of Colombian stingless bees used in meliponiculture under present and future climate scenarios. Stingless bees are major pollinators in tropical areas and their use in managed pollination, to produce high-value honey, and as recreation is increasingly popular worldwide. Our models indicate that most species of stingless bees exhibit restricted distributions to ecosystems within the continental natural regions of Colombia. Using intermediate (RCP 4.5) and high (RCP 8.5) greenhouse gas emission scenarios, our models predict that seven of the nine species would experience a significant reduction in their climatically suitable areas, and thus will likely influence agriculture and rural livelihoods. These results are critical to developing new conservation policies and climate adaptation strategies that include restrictions in the relocation of colonies, as well as monitoring programs that help beekeepers to shift to other species in areas where our models predicted a likely reduction or loss of habitat suitability.

植物和授粉媒介对气候变化的反应可能不同，因此植物与授粉媒介之间的关系很容易受到空间，时间，形态和识别失配的影响。尽管在热带地区，气候变化对传粉媒介和授粉服务的影响预计会比在其他纬度地区更大，但这些影响的文献记载仍然很少。在这里，我们评估了在当前和未来气候情景下，用于黑皮病养殖的哥伦比亚无刺蜂中的9种（5个属）的空间分布。无刺蜂是热带地区的主要授粉媒介，它们在有控制的授粉中用于生产高价值的蜂蜜，并且随着娱乐活动在世界范围内日益普及。我们的模型表明，大多数无刺蜂物种在哥伦比亚大陆自然区域内的生态系统分布有限。通过使用中等（RCP 4.5）和高（RCP 8.5）温室气体排放情景，我们的模型预测，这9个物种中有7个的气候适宜区域将显着减少，因此可能会影响农业和农村生计。这些结果对于制定新的保护政策和气候适应战略（包括限制殖民地的迁徙）以及监测计划以帮助养蜂人向我们模型预测可能减少或丧失栖息地的地区的其他物种转移至关重要。我们的模型预测，这9个物种中的7个将在其气候适宜区域内经历显着减少，因此可能会影响农业和农村生计。这些结果对于制定新的保护政策和气候适应战略（包括限制殖民地的迁徙）以及监测计划以帮助养蜂人向我们模型预测可能减少或丧失栖息地的地区的其他物种转移至关重要。我们的模型预测，这9个物种中的7个将在其气候适宜区域内经历显着减少，因此可能会影响农业和农村生计。这些结果对于制定新的保护政策和气候适应战略（包括限制殖民地的迁徙）以及监测计划以帮助养蜂人向我们模型预测可能减少或丧失栖息地的地区的其他物种转移至关重要。