Through a novel data set comprising the criminal records of 11,138 convicted mafia offenders, we compute criminal career parameters and trajectories through group-based trajectory modeling. Mafia offenders report prolific and persistent careers (16.1 crimes over 16.5 years on average), with five distinct trajectories (low frequency, high frequency, early starter, moderate persistence, high persistence). While showing some similarities with general offenders, the trajectories of mafia offenders also exhibit significant differences, with several groups offending well into their middle and late adulthood, notwithstanding intense criminal justice sanctions. These patterns suggest that several mafia offenders are life-course persisters and career criminals and that the involvement in the mafias is a negative turning point extending the criminal careers beyond those observed in general offenders.

中文翻译：

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黑手党成员的终身犯罪轨迹

通过一个包含 11,138 名被定罪的黑手党罪犯的犯罪记录的新数据集，我们通过基于群体的轨迹建模来计算犯罪生涯参数和轨迹。黑手党罪犯报告了多产和持续的职业生涯（平均 16.1 次犯罪超过 16.5 年），有五个不同的轨迹（低频、高频、早期开始、中等持久性、高度持久性）。尽管与一般罪犯有一些相似之处，但黑手党罪犯的轨迹也表现出显着差异，尽管受到严厉的刑事司法制裁，但仍有几个团体犯罪到成年中后期。