Bedrock overdeepenings exposed by continued glacial retreat can store precipitation and meltwater, potentially leading to the formation of new proglacial lakes. These lakes may pose threats of glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) in high mountain areas, particularly if new lakes form in geomorphological setups prone to triggering events such as landslides or moraine collapses. We present the first complete inventory for future glacial lakes in High Mountain Asia by computing the subglacial bedrock for ~100 000 glaciers and estimating overdeepening area, volume and impact hazard for the larger potential lakes. We detect 25 285 overdeepenings larger than 104 m2 with a volume of 99.1 ± 28.6 km3 covering an area of 2683 ± 773.8 km2. For the 2700 overdeepenings larger than 105 m2, we assess the lake predisposition for mass-movement impacts that could trigger a GLOF by estimating the hazard of material detaching from surrounding slopes. Our findings indicate a shift in lake area, volume and GLOF hazard from the southwestern Himalayan region toward the Karakoram. The results of this study can be used for anticipating emerging threats and potentials connected to glacial lakes and as a basis for further studies at suspected GLOF hazard hotspots.

中文翻译：

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亚洲高山未来的冰川湖：周边斜坡潜在危险的清单和评估

持续的冰川退缩暴露的基岩过度加深可以储存降水和融水，可能导致新的冰川前湖的形成。这些湖泊可能对高山地区的冰川湖溃决洪水（GLOF）构成威胁，特别是如果在容易引发滑坡或冰碛塌陷等事件的地貌环境中形成新湖泊。我们通过计算约 100 000 条冰川的冰下基岩并估计更大的潜在湖泊的过度加深面积、体积和影响危险，为亚洲高山未来的冰川湖泊提供了第一份完整清单。我们检测到 25 285 个大于 10 的过度加深4米2体积为 99.1 ± 28.6 公里3面积2683±773.8平方公里2. 对于大于 10 的 2700 个过度加深5米2，我们通过估计物质从周围斜坡上脱落的危险来评估湖泊对可能引发 GLOF 的大规模运动影响的易感性。我们的研究结果表明，从喜马拉雅西南部地区向喀喇昆仑地区的湖泊面积、体积和 GLOF 危害发生了变化。这项研究的结果可用于预测与冰川湖有关的新威胁和潜力，并作为进一步研究疑似 GLOF 危险热点的基础。