We investigate the impacts of COVID-19 on global value chains by examining bilateral trade in finished machinery products from January to June in both 2019 and 2020. We use the numbers of COVID-19 cases and deaths as measures of the impact of the pandemic. Specifically, we investigate how these impacts affect value chains in three scenarios—countries that import finished machinery products, countries that export finished machinery products, and countries that export machinery parts to countries exporting finished machinery products—to assess the impacts on demand, output, and supply chain, respectively. In our analysis, the largest negative impacts were from supply chain effects, followed by output effects. In contrast, we did not find significant impacts from demand effects. We also found that output effects are not so strong in intra-Asian trade compared with trade in other regions.

中文翻译：

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COVID-19 对全球价值链的影响

我们通过检查 2019 年和 2020 年 1 月至 6 月的成品机械产品双边贸易来调查 COVID-19 对全球价值链的影响。我们使用 COVID-19 病例和死亡人数作为大流行影响的衡量标准。具体来说，我们调查了这些影响如何在三种情景下影响价值链——进口机械产品的国家、出口机械产品的国家以及向出口机械产品的国家出口机械零件的国家——以评估对需求、产出、和供应链，分别。在我们的分析中，最大的负面影响来自供应链效应，其次是产出效应。相比之下，我们没有发现需求效应的显着影响。