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Dynamic consistency, valuable information and subjective beliefs
Economic Theory ( IF 1.2 ) Pub Date : 2021-03-02 , DOI: 10.1007/s00199-021-01351-y
Spyros Galanis

Ambiguity sensitive preferences must fail either Consequentialism or Dynamic Consistency (DC), two properties that are compatible with subjective expected utility and Bayesian updating, while forming the basis of backward induction and dynamic programming. We examine the connection between these properties in a general environment of convex preferences over monetary acts and find that, far from being incompatible, they are connected in an economically meaningful way. In single-agent decision problems, positive value of information characterises one direction of DC. We propose a weakening of DC and show that one direction is equivalent to weakly valuable information, whereas the other characterises the Bayesian updating of the subjective beliefs which are revealed by trading behavior.



中文翻译:

动态一致,有价值的信息和主观信念

对歧义敏感的首选项必须不失败,即后果性或动态一致性(DC),这两个属性与主观预期效用和贝叶斯更新兼容,同时形成了反向归纳和动态规划的基础。我们研究了在对货币行为具有凸性偏好的一般环境中这些属性之间的联系,发现它们之间的联系远非相容,而且在经济上有意义。在单主体决策问题中,信息的正值表征了DC的一个方向。我们提出减弱DC的方法,并表明一个方向等同于价值微弱的信息,而另一个方向则表征了交易行为所揭示的主观信念的贝叶斯更新。

更新日期:2021-03-02
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