Widespread tree mortality following droughts has emerged as an environmentally and economically devastating ‘ecological surprise’. It is well established that tree physiology is important in understanding drought-driven mortality; however, the accuracy of predictions based on physiology alone has been limited. We propose that complicating factors at two levels stymie predictions of drought-driven mortality: (i) organismal-level physiological and site factors that obscure understanding of drought exposure and vulnerability and (ii) community-level ecological interactions, particularly with biotic agents whose effects on tree mortality may reverse expectations based on stress physiology. We conclude with a path forward that emphasizes the need for an integrative approach to stress physiology and biotic agent dynamics when assessing forest risk to drought-driven morality in a changing climate.

干旱后广泛的树木死亡已成为对环境和经济造成破坏性的“生态意外”。众所周知，树木生理学对于了解干旱导致的死亡率非常重要；然而，仅基于生理的预测的准确性就受到了限制。我们建议在两个层面上复杂的因素阻碍干旱造成的死亡率的预测：（i）使人们对干旱暴露和脆弱性的理解难以理解的生物层面的生理和场所因素，以及（ii）社区层面的生态相互作用，尤其是与影响其作用的生物制剂之间的相互作用对树木死亡率的评估可能会逆转基于压力生理的预期。