The purpose of the present study was to develop a methodology for the evaluation of direct climate impacts on shallow groundwater resources and its country-scale application in Hungary. A modular methodology was applied. It comprised the definition of climate zones and recharge zones, recharge calculation by hydrological models, and the numerical modelling of the groundwater table. Projections of regional climate models for three different time intervals were applied for the simulation of predictive scenarios. The investigated regional climate model projections predict rising annual average temperature and generally dropping annual rainfall rates throughout the following decades. Based on predictive modelling, recharge rates and groundwater levels are expected to drop in elevated geographic areas such as the Alpokalja, the Eastern parts of the Transdanubian Mountains, the Mecsek, and Northern Mountain Ranges. Less significant groundwater level drops are predicted in foothill areas, and across the Western part of the Tiszántúl, the Duna-Tisza Interfluve, and the Szigetköz areas. Slightly increasing recharge and groundwater levels are predicted in the Transdanubian Hills and the Western part of the Transdanubian Mountains. Simulation results represent groundwater conditions at the country scale. However, the applied methodology is suitable for simulating climate change impacts at various scales.

中文翻译：

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模拟匈牙利气候变化对浅层地下水条件的影响

本研究的目的是开发一种方法，用于评估直接气候对浅层地下水资源的影响及其在匈牙利的国家规模应用。应用了模块化方法。它包括气候带和补给区的定义，通过水文模型进行补给的计算以及地下水位的数值模拟。将三个不同时间间隔的区域气候模型的投影应用于模拟预测情景。所研究的区域气候模型预测预测，在随后的几十年中，年平均温度将升高，而年降雨量通常将下降。根据预测模型，预计Alpokalja等高海拔地区的补给率和地下水位将下降，Transdanubian山脉的东部，Mecsek和北部山脉。预测在山麓地区以及Tiszántúl西部，Duna-Tisza Interfluve和Szigetköz地区的地下水位下降幅度不大。预计跨丹布努山和跨丹布努山西部地区的补给量和地下水位将略有增加。模拟结果代表了全国范围内的地下水条件。但是，所应用的方法适用于模拟各种规模的气候变化影响。预计跨丹布努山和跨丹布努山西部地区的补给量和地下水位将略有增加。模拟结果代表了全国范围内的地下水条件。但是，所应用的方法适用于模拟各种规模的气候变化影响。预计跨丹布努山和跨丹布努山西部地区的补给量和地下水位将略有增加。模拟结果代表了全国范围内的地下水条件。但是，所应用的方法适用于模拟各种规模的气候变化影响。