ABSTRACT

This paper discusses the Brazilian economy since 2015. After an economic boom from 2005 to 2011, Brazil entered a downturn, which resulted in a strong recession in 2015 and 2016. The Economic Authorities understood that the cause of the crisis was due to an expansionary economic policy undertaken over the period 2009–2014; thereby the solution for the recession would be quite the opposite: fiscal austerity and tight monetary policy. However, the restrictive economic policies did not grant growth: Brazil grew a little bit more than 1.0% on average over 2017–2019. It was this stagnated Brazil that the Covid-19 pandemic met, turning it worse than what had already been bad. In view of that, we explain why the ‘expansionary fiscal austerity’ failed to furnish growth and debate what should be undertaken to ensure a sustainable economic activity and structural development.

摘要

本文讨论了自 2015 年以来的巴西经济。在 2005 年至 2011 年的经济繁荣之后，巴西进入了低迷期，导致 2015 年和 2016 年出现严重衰退。经济当局理解危机的原因是经济扩张所致2009-2014 年期间采取的政策；因此，衰退的解决方案将完全相反：财政紧缩和紧缩的货币政策。然而，限制性经济政策并没有带来增长：巴西在 2017-2019 年的平均增长率略高于 1.0%。正是在这个停滞不前的巴西遭遇了 Covid-19 大流行，使它变得比已经糟糕的情况更糟。有鉴于此，