Abstract

Active mobility offers an array of physical, emotional, and social well-being benefits. However, with the proliferation of the sharing economy, new nonmotorized means of transport are entering the fold, complementing some existing mobility options while competing with others. The purpose of this research study is to investigate the adoption of three active travel modes—namely walking, cycling, and bikesharing—in a joint modeling framework. The analysis is based on an adaptation of the stages of change framework, which originates from the health behavior sciences. Multivariate ordered probit modeling drawing on U.S. survey data provides well-needed insights into individuals’ preparedness to adopt multiple active modes as a function of personal, neighborhood, and psychosocial factors. The research suggests three important findings. (1) The joint model structure confirms interdependence among different active mobility choices. The strongest complementarity is found for walking and cycling adoption. (2) Each mode has a distinctive adoption path with either three or four separate stages. We discuss the implications of derived stage-thresholds and plot adoption contours for selected scenarios. (3) Psychological and neighborhood variables generate more coupling among active modes than individual and household factors. Specifically, identifying strongly with active mobility aspirations, experiences with multimodal travel, possessing better navigational skills, along with supportive local community norms are the factors that appear to drive the joint adoption decisions. This study contributes to the understanding of how decisions within the same functional domain are related and help to design policies that promote active mobility by identifying positive spillovers and joint determinants.

摘要

主动出行提供了一系列身体、情感和社会福利。然而，随着共享经济的普及，新的非机动交通方式正在进入市场，在与其他交通方式竞争的同时补充了一些现有的出行方式。本研究的目的是调查在联合建模框架中采用三种主动出行模式（即步行、骑自行车和共享单车）。该分析基于对变化阶段框架的适应，该框架源自健康行为科学。基于美国调查数据的多变量有序概率模型提供了关于个人准备采用多种主动模式作为个人、邻里和社会心理因素的函数的急需洞察。该研究提出了三个重要发现。(1) 联合模型结构证实了不同主动出行选择之间的相互依赖关系。步行和骑自行车的采用具有最强的互补性。(2) 每种模式都有一个独特的采用路径，分为三个或四个单独的阶段。我们讨论了选定场景的衍生阶段阈值和地块采用轮廓的含义。(3) 心理和邻里变量在活跃模式之间产生比个人和家庭因素更多的耦合。具体来说，强烈认同主动出行的愿望、多式联运旅行的经验、拥有更好的导航技能以及支持性的当地社区规范似乎是推动联合采用决策的因素。