This paper studies the asymmetric effects of sectoral shifts on economic performance under low and high uncertainty using US data. A sectoral shift is found to induce more depressed economic activity under high uncertainty relative to under low uncertainty. These effects are statistically different across the two uncertainty regimes and are not driven solely by recessions. A tractable two-sector dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with sectoral shifts and stochastic volatility is able to qualitatively explain these empirical findings.

中文翻译：

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低不确定性和高不确定性下部门转移的不对称影响

本文使用美国数据研究了在低不确定性和高不确定性下部门转移对经济表现的不对称影响。与低不确定性相比，在高不确定性下，部门转变会导致经济活动更加萧条。这些影响在两种不确定性机制中在统计上是不同的，并且不仅仅由衰退驱动。具有部门转移和随机波动率的易于处理的两部门动态随机一般均衡模型能够定性地解释这些实证结果。