Carfax (2018) estimates that 20% of U.S. vehicles that are on the road have outstanding recalls: they have a known defective part or design. Recalled vehicles represent future costs to manufacturers and pose safety risks to the public. Only two prior studies examine the determinants of recall completion rates—the percent of recalled vehicles that are repaired—and both use cross-sectional data from the 1980s. This paper uses panel data on 677 U.S. vehicle recall campaigns from 2006 to 2015 to identify the correlates of completion rates for the Detroit 3 and the three largest foreign vehicle manufacturers. In addition to using more recent data, we include variables that were not previously examined: multiple recalls, vehicle type, and reporting period. The analysis confirms the earlier finding that domestic manufacturers’ completion rates exceed those of the foreign producers. We also observe higher completion rates on recalls for severe defects, on vehicles under multiple recalls, and on luxury vehicles. In contrast, older vehicles and trucks exhibit lower recall completion rates. The observed patterns in recall completion rates suggest that refinements in how manufacturers estimate recall costs in the litigation process and in strategies to improve completion rates are possible.

Carfax（2018）估计，在路上行驶的美国车辆中有20％的召回率很高：它们具有已知的零件或设计有缺陷。召回的车辆给制造商带来了未来的成本，并给公众带来了安全隐患。只有两项先前的研究检查了召回完成率的决定因素（修理的召回车辆的百分比），并且都使用了1980年代的横截面数据。本文使用2006年至2015年美国677辆汽车召回活动的面板数据，确定了底特律3号和三大外国汽车制造商的完成率。除了使用最新数据外，我们还包含以前未检查过的变量：多次召回，车辆类型和报告时间。分析证实了较早的发现，即国内制造商的完成率超过了外国制造商的完成率。我们还发现，严重缺陷召回，多次召回的车辆以及豪华车辆的召回完成率更高。相反，较旧的车辆和卡车的召回完成率较低。观察到的召回完成率模式表明，可以改进制造商在诉讼过程中估算召回成本的方式以及提高完成率的策略。