This paper presents a technique for estimating the influences of channel bias on phonological typology. The technique, based on statistical bootstrapping, enables the estimation of historical probability, the probability that a synchronic alternation arises based on two diachronic factors: the number of sound changes required for an alternation to arise and their respective probabilities. I estimate historical probabilities of six attested and unattested alternations targeting the feature [voice], compare historical probabilities of these alternations, perform inferential statistics on the comparison and, to evaluate the performance of the channel bias approach, compare outputs of the diachronic model against the independently observed synchronic typology. The technique also identifies mismatches between the typological predictions of the analytic bias and channel bias approaches. By comparing these mismatches with the observed typology, this paper attempts to quantitatively evaluate the distinct contributions of the two influences on typology in a set of alternations targeting the feature [voice].

中文翻译：

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估计自然和非自然过程的历史概率

本文提出了一种估计通道偏差对语音类型学影响的技术。该技术基于统计自举，能够估计历史概率，即同步交替出现的概率基于两​​个历时因素：交替出现所需的声音变化的数量及其各自的概率。我估计了针对特征 [voice] 的六个经证实和未经证实的交替的历史概率，比较这些交替的历史概率，对比较进行推论统计，并评估通道偏差方法的性能，将历时模型的输出与独立观察到的共时类型学。该技术还可以识别分析偏差和渠道偏差方法的类型预测之间的不匹配。通过将这些不匹配与观察到的类型学进行比较，本文试图在一组针对特征 [voice] 的交替中定量评估这两种影响对类型学的不同贡献。