Many studies have found that ground-motion duration has a considerable influence on damage to conventional civil structures. Historically, Mexico City has been severely affected by long-duration distant subduction earthquakes because of the heterogeneous local site conditions underlying the subsoil of the city, which significantly amplify the soil response. Using a reliable database of earthquakes that occurred in the subduction zone of the Pacific Coast of Mexico, recorded in the hill zone of the Valley of Mexico from 1985 to 2020, predictive models are proposed in this study from existing definitions of strong-motion duration. These models were developed using a mixed-effects approach, which is a statistical method that can consider the correlation between data recorded from the same event. Such models have valuable applications in seismic and structural engineering because they can accurately define the dimension and randomness of strong-motion duration.

许多研究发现，地震动持续时间对传统民用建筑的破坏有相当大的影响。从历史上看，墨西哥城受到长期远距离俯冲地震的严重影响，原因是该城市地下土壤所处的局部场地条件不均一，从而大大加剧了土壤响应。利用可靠的数据库，记录了从1985年至2020年在墨西哥谷山丘地区记录的墨西哥太平洋沿岸俯冲带发生的地震，根据现有的强运动持续时间定义，提出了预测模型。这些模型是使用混合效果方法开发的，该方法是一种统计方法，可以考虑从同一事件记录的数据之间的相关性。