Due to a lack of large deformation dyke assessment models, primary failure mechanisms, such as inner slope failure, are often used as a proxy to assess the probability of failure of a dyke. However, a dyke continues to fulfil its main function unless, or until, flooding occurs. The Random Material Point Method (RMPM) is used here to investigate residual dyke resistance, which is the resistance against flooding after initial failure. RMPM combines random fields with MPM in a Monte Carlo simulation and has been extended here to include the effects of an external hydrostatic pressure on a dyke’s outer slope. The residual resistance of an idealised dyke (computed using RMPM) is shown to reduce the probability of flooding by 25% with respect to the initial failure. A lower degree of anisotropy of the spatial variability increases the residual dyke resistance. RMPM simulates, as expected, a lower residual dyke resistance for larger initial failures and/or a higher water level. A ‘safe’ remaining geometry has not been found, since even small initial failures can result in an unacceptable probability of flooding, highlighting the importance of modelling the entire failure process.

由于缺乏大的变形堤坝评估模型，主要的失效机制（例如内边坡破坏）经常被用作评估堤坝失效概率的代理。但是，堤坝继续履行其主要职能，除非或直到洪灾发生为止。这里使用随机材料点法（RMPM）来研究残余堤抗性，即初始故障后的抗水淹性。RMPM在蒙特卡洛模拟中将随机场与MPM结合在一起，并在此处进行了扩展，以包括外部静水压力对堤坝外坡的影响。理想化的堤坝（使用RMPM计算）的剩余电阻显示出，相对于初始故障，其洪水泛滥的可能性降低了25％。较低程度的空间变异性各向异性会增加残余的堤抗性。如预期的那样，RMPM模拟了较低的剩余堤防，以应对较大的初始故障和/或较高的水位。尚未发现“安全的”剩余几何形状，因为即使很小的初始故障也可能导致不可接受的泛洪可能性，从而突出了对整个故障过程进行建模的重要性。