Abstract

Some authors suggest that space weather events may affect daily weather variables, such as air temperature and atmospheric pressure. Associations between space weather events and daily weather variables have been analyzed in four Baltic airports near Kaunas, Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn during 2000–2016. We hypothesized that space weather events, 1–5 days before or after them, and intersection days (1–5 days after the event, which coincided with 1–5 days before the event) might be associated with changes in the daily weather variables. The effects of space weather were analyzed by using multivariate linear regression adjusting for the month, the linear trend, the QBO phase, and the NAO index. In all the studied cities, higher daily mean air temperature (T) was observed both during the period of 1–3 days before—1–4 days after high-speed solar wind (HSSW) (β > 1.8, p < 0.01) and during the period of 1–5 days before—the first 4 days of solar proton >10 MeV energy flux >10 pfu (β > 1.9, p < 0.01). HSSW events lasting more than 2 days were related to lower atmospheric pressure (ATP) and higher wind speed (WS), and the period of January–February. In addition, 7–23 days after the onset of solar proton event (SPE) with the maximum >1000 pfu was related to lower T, relative humidity (RH), and WS, and higher ATP in all cities (p < 0.001 in all cases). In Northern airports, RH tended to be lower during geomagnetic storms (GS) or GS intersection days (p < 0.01). Such space weather events as HSSW and SPE may be associated with short-term changes in weather variables.

中文翻译：

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波罗的海地区冬季空间天气与气象变量之间的统计联系

摘要

一些作者建议，太空天气事件可能会影响日常天气变量，例如气温和大气压力。在2000–2016年期间，在考纳斯，维尔纽斯，里加和塔林附近的四个波罗的海机场中分析了空间天气事件与每日天气变量之间的关联。我们假设太空天气事件发生在事件发生之前或之后1至5天，以及相交天数（事件发生1至5天，与事件发生1至5天一致）可能与每日天气变量的变化有关。通过对月份，线性趋势，QBO阶段和NAO指数进行多元线性回归调整，分析了空间天气的影响。在所有研究过的城市中p <0.01）以及在此之前的1-5天之间-太阳质子的前4天> 10 MeV能量通量> 10 pfu（β> 1.9，p <0.01）。持续超过2天的HSSW事件与较低的气压（ATP）和较高的风速（WS）以及1月至2月之间的时间有关。此外，在太阳质子事件（SPE）发生后7-23天，最大> 1000 pfu与所有城市中较低的T，相对湿度（RH）和WS和较高的ATP有关（在所有城市中，p <0.001情况）。在北部机场，在地磁风暴（GS）或GS相交天期间，RH往往较低（p <0.01）。诸如HSSW和SPE之类的空间天气事件可能与天气变量的短期变化相关。