The recurrence of extreme wind waves in the Kara Sea strongly influences the Arctic climate change. The period 2000–2010 is characterized by significant climate warming, a reduction of the sea ice in the Arctic. The main motivation of this research to assess the impact of climate change on storm activity over the past 39 years in the Kara Sea. The paper presents the analysis of wave climate and storm activity in the Kara Sea based on the results of numerical modeling. A wave model WAVEWATCH III is used to reconstruct wind wave fields for the period from 1979 to 2017. The maximum significant wave height (SWH) for the whole period amounts to 9.9 m. The average long-term SWH for the ice-free period does not exceed 1.3 m. A significant linear trend shows an increase in the storm wave frequency for the period from 1979 to 2017. It is shown that trends in the storm activity of the Kara Sea are primarily regulated by the ice. Analysis of the extreme storm events showed that the Pareto distribution is in the best agreement with the data. However, the extreme events with an SWH more than 6‒7 m deviate from the Pareto distribution.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯卡拉海39年海浪后兆，风暴活动以及风暴波的概率分析

卡拉海中极端风浪的再次出现严重影响了北极的气候变化。2000-2010年期间的特征是气候明显变暖，北极海冰减少。这项研究的主要动机是评估过去39年间在卡拉海气候变化对风暴活动的影响。本文基于数值模拟的结果，对卡拉海的波浪气候和风暴活动进行了分析。波浪模型WAVEWATCH III用于重建1979年至2017年期间的风波场。整个期间的最大有效波高（SWH）达9.9 m。无冰期的平均长期SWH不超过1.3 m。线性趋势显着，表明1979年至2017年期间的风暴波频率增加。结果表明，卡拉海风暴活动的趋势主要受冰的调节。对极端风暴事件的分析表明，帕累托分布与数据最吻合。但是，SWH大于6×7 m的极端事件偏离了帕累托分布。