Seasonal reconstructions of streamflow are valuable because they provide water planners, policy makers, and stakeholders with information on the range and variability of water resources before the observational period. In this study, we used streamflow data from five gages near the Alabama-Florida border and centuries-long tree-ring chronologies to create and analyze seasonal flow reconstructions. Prescreening methods included correlation and temporal stability analysis of predictors to ensure practical and reliable reconstructions. Seasonal correlation analysis revealed that several regional tree-ring chronologies were significantly correlated (p ≤ 0.05) with March–October streamflow, and stepwise linear regression was used to create the reconstructions. Reconstructions spanned 1203–1985, 1652–1983, 1725–1993, 1867–2011, and 1238–1985 for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, Perdido, and Pascagoula Rivers, respectively, all of which were statistically skillful (R² ≥ 0.50). The reconstructions were statistically validated using the following parameters: R² predicted validation, the sign test, the variance inflation factor (VIF), and the Durbin–Watson (D–W) statistic. The long-term streamflow variability was analyzed for the Choctawhatchee, Conecuh, Escambia, and Perdido Rivers, and the recent (2000s) drought was identified as being the most severe in the instrumental record. The 2000s drought was also identified as being one of the most severe droughts throughout the entire reconstructed paleo-record developed for all five rivers. This information is vital for the consideration of present and future conditions within the system.

中文翻译：

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阿拉巴马州和佛罗里达州（美国）州际流量的古远景

季节性水流重建非常有价值，因为它们可以在观测期之前为水资源规划者，决策者和利益相关者提供有关水资源的范围和可变性的信息。在这项研究中，我们使用了来自阿拉巴马州-佛罗里达州边界附近五个测距仪的流量数据以及百年树龄的树轮年代，以创建和分析季节性流量重建。预筛查方法包括对预测变量的相关性和时间稳定性分析，以确保切实可行且可靠的重建。季节性相关性分析显示，几个区域树年轮年代显着相关（p≤0.05），三月至十月的流量，并使用逐步线性回归来创建重构。重建跨越1203年至1985年，1652年至1983年，1725年至1993年，1867年至2011年，1238年至1985年和用于查克托哈奇，科尼卡，埃斯坎比亚，佩尔迪，和分别帕斯卡古拉河流，所有这些均具有统计学熟练（- [R ² ≥0.50） 。使用以下参数对重建进行统计学验证：R ²预测验证，符号检验，方差膨胀因子（VIF）和Durbin–Watson（D–W）统计量。分析了Choctawhatchee，Conecuh，Escambia和Perdido河流的长期流量变化，最近（2000年代）的干旱被确定为仪器记录中最严重的干旱。在所有五条河流重建的整个古记录中，2000年代的干旱也被确定为最严重的干旱之一。该信息对于考虑系统中当前和将来的状况至关重要。