In this paper, we study high-stakes risky choices of contestants in the Turkish edition of the popular TV game show Deal or No Deal. We conduct a large-scale replication of Post, Van den Assem, Baltussen, and Thaler (2008), and we investigate contestant behavior in Turkey in detail via the expected utility and cumulative prospect theory. We find strong empirical support on the role of path dependence in shaping risk attitudes: Turkish contestants who enjoy early gains or suffer early losses in the initial rounds of the game are more risk-lover than other contestants, which aligns well with the break-even and house-money effects à la Thaler and Johnson (1990). We also document that the cumulative prospect theory predicts contestant behavior better than the expected utility theory empirically. Finally, we demonstrate that risk aversion exhibits sizable heterogeneity over demographics, and female and university-graduate contestants are more risk-averse than their male and less-educated counterparts.

在本文中，我们在土耳其版热门电视游戏节目“交易或不交易”的土耳其版本中研究了高风险的参赛者选择。我们进行了Post，Van den Assem，Baltussen和Thaler（2008）的大规模复制，并通过预期效用和累积前景理论详细研究了土耳其的选手行为。我们发现，路径依赖在塑造风险态度中的作用有很强的经验支持：在比赛的第一轮中享受早期收益或遭受早期损失的土耳其选手比其他选手更具风险偏好，这与盈亏平衡点非常吻合。以及Thaler和Johnson（1990）的房屋货币效应。我们还证明，累积预期理论从经验上比预期效用理论更好地预测了参赛者的行为。最后，我们证明了风险规避在人口统计上显示出相当大的异质性，