Investigation of past accidents has shown that LPG tank accidents cause significant damage to the industry due to the storage of large volumes of flammable materials in them. This study aimed for developing a predictive accident model for dynamic risk assessment of propane storage tanks of the refinery. Hazards and safety barriers were identified using MIMAH methodology. The basis of MIMAH methodology is Bow-tie method. To construct the Bow-tie diagram, first, accidents that occurred on LPG tanks were extracted from the databases of accidents and valid sources. The top events of the accidents were identified and analyzed by the fault tree. The Bow-tie diagrams were constructed and the barriers on the diagrams were identified and verified by refinery experts. According to the SHIPP model, safety barriers were categorized into seven main barriers. The failure rates of the fault tree basic events were extracted from reliable sources and the prior probability of barriers was calculated. Based on the failure or success of safety barriers, 6 levels of severity of consequences, safe, near miss, mishap, incident, and catastrophic accident were considered. Using the prior probability of failure of the barriers, the probability of occurrence of each level of severity of consequences was calculated with the event tree. In the next step, this paper employed LPG storage tanks past accidents to construct a likelihood function and update prior probability using the Bayesian equation. Finally, the posterior probability of occurrence of the consequences was calculated using the posterior probability of failure of the barriers. Because LPG accidents occur with low probability and high severity, predicting accidents dynamically helps people to always be prepared to prevent their occurrence.

对过去事故的调查表明，液化石油气储罐事故由于在其中储存大量易燃材料而对行业造成了重大损害。这项研究旨在为炼油厂丙烷储罐的动态风险评估开发预测性事故模型。使用MIMAH方法确定了危害和安全障碍。MIMAH方法的基础是领结法。要构建领结图，首先，从事故数据库和有效来源中提取液化石油气储罐上发生的事故。故障树确定并分析了事故的头号事件。构造领结图，并由炼油厂专家识别和验证图上的障碍。根据SHIPP模型，安全壁垒分为七个主要壁垒。从可靠来源提取故障树基本事件的失败率，并计算障碍的先验概率。根据安全屏障的成败，考虑了后果严重性的6个级别：安全，差错，事故，事故和灾难性事故。使用障碍的先验概率，使用事件树计算后果严重程度的每个级别的发生概率。在下一步中，本文利用液化石油气储罐过去的事故来构造似然函数并使用贝叶斯方程更新先验概率。最后，使用障碍失效的后验概率来计算后果发生的后验概率。由于液化石油气事故发生的可能性低且严重性高，