Abstract The need for better evacuation management is becoming inevitably important as a preparedness measure to minimize negative impacts of disasters. One of the essential aspects necessary for evacuation modeling and management is taking into account the travel behavior of evacuees. This study was conducted to understand the evacuation route choice behavior of households affected by the flood that happened during Mid-August of 2013 at Bagong Silangan, Quezon City, Philippines. Three binary logit route choice models with hazard-related and socio-demographic information, as well as evacuation-related decisions as exogenous factors, were estimated and validated. Significant explanatory variables in each model vary. Generally, Models 2 and 3 indicate some level of usefulness in predicting evacuation route choice behavior. Results also provide implications for evacuation planning and management. These models could be incorporated in an evacuation simulation model that is used to analyze and evaluate evacuation plans. The routes taken by evacuees according to their timing can then be the basis of traffic loaded on such routes and assessed whether number of evacuees can be accommodated accordingly. Based on the results, planners can analyze and evaluate appropriate actions such as the evacuation timing, routes and destinations to advise households at risk in case of future floods.

中文翻译：

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高度城市化地区疏散人员的路线选择行为建模：以菲律宾奎松市Bagong Silangan为例

摘要作为减少灾害的负面影响的防备措施，对更好的疏散管理的需求不可避免地变得越来越重要。疏散建模和管理所必需的基本方面之一是考虑撤离人员的旅行行为。进行这项研究是为了了解2013年8月中旬在菲律宾奎松市Bagong Silangan遭受洪水影响的家庭的疏散路线选择行为。估计并验证了三种具有危险性和社会人口统计学信息以及与疏散有关的决策作为外生因素的二元logit路径选择模型。每个模型中的重要解释变量各不相同。通常，模型2和模型3在预测疏散路线选择行为方面显示出一定程度的实用性。结果还为疏散计划和管理提供了启示。这些模型可以并入到疏散模拟模型中，该模型用于分析和评估疏散计划。然后，撤离者根据其时机选择的路线可以作为在此类路线上加载的交通量的基础，并评估是否可以容纳相应数量的撤离者。根据结果​​，规划人员可以分析和评估适当的措施，例如疏散时间，路线和目的地，以在将来发生洪水时向有风险的家庭提供建议。然后，撤离者根据其时机选择的路线可以作为在此类路线上加载的交通量的基础，并评估是否可以容纳相应数量的撤离者。根据结果​​，规划人员可以分析和评估适当的措施，例如疏散时间，路线和目的地，以在将来发生洪水时向有风险的家庭提供建议。然后，撤离者根据其时机选择的路线可以作为在此类路线上加载的交通量的基础，并评估是否可以容纳相应数量的撤离者。根据结果​​，规划人员可以分析和评估适当的措施，例如疏散时间，路线和目的地，以在将来发生洪水时向有风险的家庭提供建议。