Climate change has become a significant factor in crop production in the 21st century for many countries. To turn losses into profit, adaptation measures are needed, which are based on the analysis and forecast of economically valuable characteristics of crops. The field trial data were analyzed for 764 oat accessions from the global germplasm collection by the N.I. Vavilov All-Russian Institute of Plant Genetic Resources (VIR) in 2001–2019 and the cultivar ‘Gorizont’ in 1990–2019 in Yekaterinino Experiment Station of VIR (Tambov Province, Russia, 52°59′ N, 40°50′ E). A progressive shortening of the growing season and a yield increase were observed during the study both in the mean values for the tested accessions and in the cv. ‘Gorizont’. Grain yield variability of cv. ‘Gorizont’ across the years was also associated with 1000 grain weight variations. The models predict a further reduction in the growing season by 2.4 days/10 years, mainly caused by an increase in temperatures above 15 °C, and an increase in yield by 47.6 g/m²/10 years, mainly caused by an increase in the temperature in May. ANOVA demonstrated that the highest yields in Tambov Province were produced by accessions from Ulyanovsk Province, Ukraine, Moscow Province, Norway, Germany, and Poland.

中文翻译：

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俄罗斯中部黑土地区VIR燕麦种质资源农艺性状的长期变化分析

对于许多国家而言，气候变化已成为21世纪作物生产的重要因素。为了将损失转化为利润，需要采取适应措施，这些措施基于对作物的经济价值特征的分析和预测。NI Vavilov全俄植物遗传资源研究所（VIR）于2001-2019年对全球燕麦种质收集的764份燕麦进行了田间试验数据分析，并于1990-2019年在VIR的叶卡捷琳诺实验站对品种“ Gorizo​​nt”进行了田间试验数据（俄罗斯坦波夫省，北纬52°59′，东经40°50′）。在研究期间，无论是被测种质的平均值还是cv，均观察到生长期的逐渐缩短和单产的增加。戈里佐特（Gorizo​​nt）。简历的谷物产量变异性。多年来的“戈里佐特”也与1000种谷物的重量变化有关。这些模型预测，生长季节将进一步减少2.4天/ 10年，这主要是由于温度升高了15°C以上，单产增加了47.6 g / m² /10年，主要是由于5月气温升高所致。方差分析表明，坦波夫省的最高产量来自乌里扬诺夫斯克省，乌克兰，莫斯科省，挪威，德国和波兰的种质。